South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep22)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell leftovers Thurs with cleaner conditions more favourable for swell magnets
• Small S swell pulses Fri/Sat offer a rideable wave at S magnets though N'ly winds a problem
• Stronger S swell Sun with SE winds
• Small S swell leftovers Mon with SE winds
• Small peaky tradewind swell developing Tues, likely to persist through to Fri
• Stronger E swell possible into October, revision likely

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Directional S swell eases through Thurs with improving conditions as winds ease
• Long period S swell Fri favours S swell magnets, N'ly winds freshening.
• Small S swell Sat with N'ly winds
• Stronger S swell Sun with SE winds
•  S swell leftovers Mon with SE winds
• Small peaky tradewind swell developing Tues, likely to persist through to Fri (not significant south of Yamba)
• Stronger E swell possible into October, revision likely

Recap

Wild and wooly weather yesterday with a strong cold front bringing fresh S’lies and storms that contained hail. Surf built across NENSW through the a’noon into the 3-5ft range, with a late wind change offering a window of clean conditions. Size was much smaller in SEQLD, with a late kick into the 2ft range. Windy 3-5ft surf has continued in NENSW today, with smaller 3-4ft surf on offer at semi-protected locations. Surfing in SEQLD was mostly confined to a few semi-protected locations with some 2-3ft surf on offer. Strong S’ly winds through the day are now beginning to moderate and that trend will continue into tomorrow.

This week (Sep 22-24)

We’re now past the peak of the spike in directional S swell generated by an intense front which pushed into the Tasman yesterday. Synoptically, a weak 1000 hPa low is now near the North Island, with a dominant 1033 hPa high north in the Bight beginning to drift into the interior and weaken. Pressure squeeze between these two systems is expected to rapidly weaken over the next 12-24 hrs, leading to an easing in both wind and swell. Below the continent, a very active Southern storm track is generating large seas with a few pulses of long period swell expected from this source, favouring NENSW for size.

With the high rapidly pinching off from the interior and moving into the Tasman tomorrow winds will ease before shifting back to the northern quadrant in the a’noon, with a morning W to SW breeze shifting SE before tending E/NE to NE in the a’noon. That will make for excellent morning conditions to mop up the easing S swell from the current event. Expect clean 3-4ft surf across S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD, with some long period swell trains in the mix, likely overwhelmed by a’noon NE winds.

Friday is a better bet for long period S swells but northerly winds are likely to spoil the party. Expect some extra grunt in the sets as 16-18 second period S swells radiate in from a deep southern source fetch. A Bass Strait fetch of low end W’ly gales Thursday will put smaller S swell into the mix as well through the a’noon.  The problem will be a freshening N’ly flow through the day which is likely to make these long period S swells hard to utilise. Early morning S swell magnets and select back beaches that can deal with a long period S swell are about the only options with 3ft sets possible in NENSW. Expect much smaller 2ft surf in SEQLD, apart from a few select Northern corners. Friday is a marginal day for most places so keep expectations very low.

This weekend (Sep 25-26)

Still a fair whack of S swell on the cards for this weekend, but only Saturday morning has fair winds. A deep low passes to the south of Tasmania Friday, with a window of W’ly component winds on offer Saturday morning, before a new high pressure ridge rapidly builds in behind the change. The morning session will likely be the only clean session for the weekend with long period S swells on offer.  Worth the early start Sat for clean 2-3ft sets in NENSW, with a light W/NW to NW flow. Expect long waits for sets. The longer period should see some 2ft+ sets get into SEQLD, but with the N’ly component wind freshening during the day you’ll be confined to northern corners. 

Sunday has plenty of S swell on offer, generated by the front and fetch of severe gales as it transits the lower Tasman overnight Fri into Sat morning. Size should build through the morning along the Mid North Coast, mid morning in NENSW and lunch-time at the border. Expect an undersized start before size builds into the 3-4ft range. Unfortunately, rapidly freshening S to SE winds will tear strips off more open locations so you’ll have to seek some shelter where surf will be much smaller in size. Babyfood peelers on the Points are an option through the a’noon as shorter period SSE to SE swell trains build in with the mid period S swell. 

In short a few small windows on the weekend but winds will generally not be favourable.

Next week (Sep 27) and beyond

High pressure dominates the Tasman for the first half of next week, at least, with an easing of the intense frontal activity below Australia leading to a suppression of the S swell window, although there are plenty of leftovers for Mon, easing into Tuesday.

Residual S swell trains Monday are likely to see 3-4ft surf at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. With high pressure drifting east into the Tasman over Central NSW later Sun into Mon the ridge of high pressure along the coast maintains a regime of SE winds, tending more ESE and easing into the a’noon.

Tuesday should see a pattern change with a slow moving high now located slightly southwards in latitude compared to Monday’s notes. This allows a broad, but weak area of Tradewinds to develop through the Coral Sea, with just enough coverage in the crucial area SW of New Caledonia down to the Fraser Coast to allow some useful tradewind swell to build through Tues and Wed. 

This is not a major event so keep expectations pegged but we should see some peaky E’ly surf in the 2ft range through Tues, building into the 2-3ft range on Wed. Slightly larger on the Sunshine Coast, closer to the swell source and diminishing south of the border, likely insignificant south of Yamba.

There’s a possibility of some longer range E’ly swell in the mix Tues and Wed. Models show a sub-tropical low developing well to the East of New Zealand this Fri, right on the edge of the swell window. It drops away quickly into the swell shadow of New Zealand but we’ll flag it now as a potential source of some 2-3ft sets on Mon and Tues. We’ll finesse the timing and size on Fri. 

A light E’ly wind is likely Tues, tending more NE in the a’noon and freshening on Wed.

That pattern remains quite slow moving into the end of next week, with both models maintaining N’ly winds through to the end of next week. 

Longer term and that slow moving high is still on this side of New Zealand at the end of next week, suggesting small NE windswell for Southern and Central NSW. Tradewinds develop in the Central Coral Sea and there is a possibility of a juicier fetch developing in the South Pacific north of New Zealand later next week, favouring NENSW and SEQLD for an increase in E’ly swell early/mid first week of October. The long lead time suggests plenty of revision in the mean-time.

Check back Fri for the latest analysis.