thermalben

Great waves for many coasts to continue, and continue

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 31st July)

Best Days: Great waves for the entire period. Though still best suited to the points Saturday under a lingering S'ly. Open beaches each next week with lighter winds tending NW. 

Recap: Building E/NE and S’ly swells reached 3-5ft at some exposed spots on Thursday afternoon, and we’ve seen slightly stronger surf today with 4-6ft sets at Northern NSW swell magnets. Winds have been out of the south so the points have had the best waves. 

Friday morning at the Superbank

Friday mid-morning at Kirra

Late Friday lines at Snapper Rocks

This weekend (Aug 1 - 2)

The synoptics are really complex at the moment, but the combined swell/wind trend is fairly linear so I’m not going to waffle on too much today about the various sources and how much they’ll each contribute to each coast.

In the mix right now is a short range S’ly swell and some juicy E/NE swell. Both of these swells will ease back over the weekend (the S’ly swell a lot, the E/NE much more gradually) but a brand new S/SE swell is expected to push across the region, generated by a developing Tasman Low in the central basin.

The models have slightly realigned the Tasman Low out of our swell window compared to previous runs, so I’m going to very slightly peg back wave height estimations for Saturday’s peak out of the S/SE. South facing beaches south of Byron should pick up 4-6ft sets, with smaller surf elsewhere. Wave heights will then ease slowly through Sunday (3-5ft early at south facing beaches south of Byron, smaller elsewhere).

However the E/NE swell should maintain 4ft+ sets at most coasts through Saturday morning, easing to 3-4ft on Sunday. So, there’ll be waves pretty much everywhere.

Local winds will dictate conditions this weekend. Lingering S’ly breezes are expected on Saturday under the influence of a coastal ridge, they’ll be fresh at times north from Yamba but light to the south. Some locations in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld should see a period of early SW winds though this is less likely on the Sunshine Coast.

On the other hand, Sunday’s looking nice and clean with light winds and sea breezes across all coasts.

Get into it!

Next week (Aug 3 onwards)

The E/NE fetch on the eastern flank of a broad Tasman trough - containing the Tasman Low - will actually strengthen over the weekend though very gradually retreat to the east (see chart below). 

This fetch will be best aimed towards Southern NSW and the Mid North Coast, but most regions should pick up some nice waves from the E/NE through Monday and Tuesday, before easing slowly from Wednesday. Wave heights may dip a little into Monday (from the weekend) but should perk up very late afternoon and through Tuesday, rebuilding to 3-5ft across much of Northern NSW, a little smaller into SE Qld. We’ll then see a a very slow easing from Wednesday. 

Long term has a bunch of swell source on the cards too. A broad sub-tropical low developing well east of New Zealand will strengthen over the weekend, and despite the lengthy travel distance, should supply some small but useful E’ly swell later next week (around Friday) and through the following weekend (and even into the start of the next week). Max surf size will probably reach 3-4ft and it’ll be very inconsistent, but it local winds play ball there’ll be some great beachies on offer. 

Additionally, a deepening cut-off low will enter our acute south swell window on Wednesday morning, and a thin fetch of S’ly gales just off the Tasmanian coast could generate a strong S’ly swell for Northern NSW around Thursday or Friday - though the model guidance is quite divergent right now, so we need a few more days to firm things up. 

Either way, the longer term outlook is shaping up for a succession of strong polar lows/fronts to advance through our south swell window and it’s likely wave heights will become quite elevated out of the south across Northern NSW later next week and into the weekend.

More on that in Monday’s update. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut commented Friday, 31 Jul 2020 at 7:17pm

"waffle on too much today about the various sources and how much they’ll each contribute to each coast.".
Yeh I prefer the short version!
Nice and to the point today.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 commented Saturday, 1 Aug 2020 at 6:11pm

Kind of thought that's what we pay for, but okay...

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 1 Aug 2020 at 8:01am

Nice lines at Snapper this AM.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 1 Aug 2020 at 8:12am

Yep, it's solid.


And a backhand pit to be pretty stoked with (sequence)


thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 1 Aug 2020 at 8:20am

Whoa.

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut commented Saturday, 1 Aug 2020 at 8:49am

Yip just another shit day in paradise.
8/10 for some and 2/10 for others.
Waves everywhere but no where to surf.

Willliam's picture
Willliam's picture
Willliam commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 11:00am
crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Saturday, 1 Aug 2020 at 10:33am

He’s a positive chap ‘ol Rockethut...

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Saturday, 1 Aug 2020 at 10:38am

Haha. Under called yesterday, over called today.
Still some 4 footers around but nowhere near the size of yesterday’s pulse.

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut commented Saturday, 1 Aug 2020 at 1:37pm

Tried a few points today but didn't enter the water....millions of nut cases having a go.
Ended up at a blown out beachie with some close outs.
Australia - The Mecca of surfing!

alexsmith1's picture
alexsmith1's picture
alexsmith1 commented Saturday, 1 Aug 2020 at 3:54pm
dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000 commented Saturday, 1 Aug 2020 at 7:21pm

solid here today. and not too sweepy. always a bonus when its big.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 1 Aug 2020 at 7:26pm

Looked pretty chunky, coupla DOH sets when I watched but didn't see anyone out. I always find a sizeable mix of swells on the Tweed creates really weird setups, and I struggle to find anything worthwhile. Stoked you got a few!

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic commented Sunday, 2 Aug 2020 at 5:55pm

Well probably some of the best beachies I have surfed for a long time... last night and this morning.... fuck me...
Puerto moved to se qld/northern nsw.... super solid and very surfable...
..

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 2 Aug 2020 at 6:29pm

that was an epic week of waves

nextswell's picture
nextswell's picture
nextswell commented Sunday, 2 Aug 2020 at 8:16pm

Forecast was a little undercooked today. Solid 5/6ft sets at my local on MNC. Perfect winds but a lot straighter than yesterday which made it difficult. Another 2020 cracker winter wknd though!

T.Edds's picture
T.Edds's picture
T.Edds commented Sunday, 2 Aug 2020 at 8:31pm

Excellent run of waves and today was the icing on the cake.

Rockethut, are you any closer to giving up surfing?

T.Edds's picture
T.Edds's picture
T.Edds commented Sunday, 2 Aug 2020 at 8:31pm

Also the Balllina/Yamba surf report looked like abit of a cut and paste job.

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 7:41am

Thanks for asking Edd.
Saturday was blown out on the beachies and the points were too packed.
But Sunday delivered just about everywhere in terms of conditions.
Points were good but packed so found some beachies mid GC and holy shit they got packed as well. It was also quite average (short rides)
Got out after 30min and found some reprieve much further north as usual.
Got some 2 turn waves without having to shout at anyone. Surfed for 3 hrs and wave count was high so guess that's as good as it gets for me!
Not near what I'm used to getting but it was enough to silence the demons for now.

T.Edds's picture
T.Edds's picture
T.Edds commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 11:45am

Excellent!

juegasiempre's picture
juegasiempre's picture
juegasiempre commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 8:47am

Yesterday was awesome out front, best I've seen in it recent memory. Sizey A-frames, lefts, rights. Good ride time each wave. The crowd was a nonstop line of people from as far down towards Miami and up north as far as I could see was the same. Biggest crowd I've ever seen out. That said, the crowd wasn't so much an issue as there were waves everywhere and lots of people were just making up the numbers I guess.

The weather was cracking as well! Having had the experience of a full Melbourne winter, they would kill for one day like we had, let alone a whole weekend.

I'm flogged. Rest day today. I want to go out but 7 days straight is too much.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 9:15am

Still head high waves out there this morning.

mcbain's picture
mcbain's picture
mcbain commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 9:53am

.

_Bodhi_'s picture
_Bodhi_'s picture
_Bodhi_ commented Monday, 3 Aug 2020 at 5:34pm

Yep, definitely a layday today. Many good sessions on the GC. “Make hay while the sun is shining” & lately we’ve had endless clear blue skies.