thermalben

A bit o' wind, but plenty o' swell (south of the border)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 26th June)

Best Days: Sat: strong (MNC) tending fun (north from Coffs) SE swell, easing during the day. Small in SE Qld. Pockets of early SW winds, otherwise S'ly. Easing into SundayLate Mon (MNC) and then Tues: another strong SE swell, biggest in Northern NSW, much smaller in SE Qld. Generally light winds, easing WedThurs: more SE swell, light winds.

Recap: Small swells mainly from the south have padded out the last two days in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, though today has also seen building SE swell across the Mid North Coast from a fetch off NZ earlier in the week. This has built size to around 4ft here (smaller as you head north from Coffs), though Southern NSW has seen 4-6ft sets. It’s still very small in SE Qld though. 

Small late lines at Snapper

Small, late, lonely line at Greenmount


This weekend (June 27 - 28)

A ridge of high pressure will maintain mainly moderate S’ly winds across most coasts for the next there days. We’ll see early pockets of SW winds but they won’t last too long, and won’t favour every beach either. 

Having confidence on the likely size from this new SE swell is quite difficult. Southern NSW came in pretty much bang on size expectations today, and I’m expecting wave heights to hold similar on Saturday. Today’s small surf throughout SE Qld was also expected, as thee building trend isn't/wasn't expected to kick in until much later than its southern counterparts. But the difficulty is estimating exactly how much size to shave off, with smaller wave heights from this swell in the north (compared to the south).

As such, there’s no compelling reason to change the outlook I issued on Wednesday, which is for lully, inconsistent 4-6ft surf across the Mid North Coast on Saturday, smaller as you head north - say 3-5ft through to Byron - and then 2-3ft across SE Qld’s open beaches, smaller again running down the points (and tiny across the inner points). 

Wave heights will reach a peakfrom both sources throughout Saturday - perhaps not until lunchtime north of the border - and then ease through Sunday. 

Next week (June 29 onwards)

There’s been yet another rejig in the model output regarding a new surface low in the lower Tasman Sea this weekend. 

It’s now due to be positioned a little closer to New Zealand, and a less favourably aligned for our swell window, though it’ll pack a punch with core winds in the 40kt+ range on Saturday night and early Sunday (see below).

Ordinarily, its poor alignment would be cause for concern, however this low is expected to remain stationary for an extended periods, which boost its swell potential - and a secondary polar front approaching from the south (clipping the south coast of New Zealand's South Island) will renew this fetch into Monday, extending the duration of the swell event through until the end of the week.

The timing for this next swell has been shunted back a few hours, so Monday morning will see smaller leftovers from the weekend. Keep a mind out for lingering southerly winds.

The models aren’t really liking this new swell much, but I reckon we’ll see a late kick in size with 4-5ft+ sets across the Mid North Coast close to dark, with the swell probably coming in after dinnertime north from Coffs or Yamba. 

However, given the time of year - and the reduced hours of sunlight - there is absolutely a risk that the swell may arrive too late to be of benefit for many surfers, even south of Yamba. So, be cautious making any plans for a late Monday session.

Otherwise, this swell should show nicely through Tuesday morning, with 4-5ft+ sets at south swell magnets south of Byron, 3ft+ elsewhere including exposed northern ends of SE Qld (though smaller along the outer points in the 2ft+ range). 

New energy from the secondary polar low (mentioned above) is currently due overnight Wednesday, and should lift surf size back up into the 3-4ft+ range for Thursday, with smaller 2ft+ surf north of the border. 

Most of next week looks clean under a weak pressure gradient and thus light winds, though Monday will see lingering southerly winds. So, there'll be stacks of options to pick and choose from.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 27 Jun 2020 at 9:19am

Looked a bit undersized in SE Qld at dawn, but seems to be coming up slowly now.

Action at D'Bah (on the bar, and also on the shore).

Nice runners at Snapper.

And although it's only small, the lines are well shaped along the Superbank.


Burleigh looking fun though a lil' small.


Reasonable sized sets showing at Narrowneck.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 27 Jun 2020 at 2:35pm

Peak swell periods kicked around the time I wrote my comment above, and the surf was really strong on the Tweed when I surfed (mid-late morning), with easy 4-5ft sets though a little wind affected and pretty inconsistent too.

On the Gold Coast though, doesn't seem to be much bigger now than mid-morning. Still within size expectations but not offering a lot of action away from exposed spots.




crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Saturday, 27 Jun 2020 at 4:29pm

Pretty damn fine day down these parts :-)

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 27 Jun 2020 at 4:55pm

How big?

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 1:49pm

Solid 4ft where I was...swell magnet wedge type of wave

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 2:28pm

Cool. Water temps OK? Wind chill been a bit of a factor up here last few days.

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 7:56pm

Been up and down a bit the last week or so. Has been nice but dropped a few degrees and looked like winter water had set in but yesterday was nice and then back down again today. Been surfing semi-protected spots so wind chill not so bad. 3/2 steamer is fine.

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 9:16am

fuck what a shitshow it was yesterday.

half the size today. and gurgly.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 9:53am

Sounded like a joke, 100+ people at the Point.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 12:03pm

Sounds like hell

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 10:56am

where the fuck did all those eurokooks come from?

Tristan Goose's picture
Tristan Goose's picture
Tristan Goose commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 12:39pm

a lot of backpackers finished up their farm work covid-hibernation stint, and are back on the road thanks to the easing of restrictions

gglendormi's picture
gglendormi's picture
gglendormi commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 2:14pm

I wouldn't complain. Wanna swap with all the Aussie from Hossegor or Bali ? Not only Europeans travel.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 4:25pm

Sorry FR - I left some detailed maps of the north coast in the Greenmount top car park. Your turn now, bahahaha

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 11:03am

seems like everyone has taken up surfing..........thanks to covid .....bad before,worse now. and its winter....

simba

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 11:13am

The local B grade spot is full of them too, they can barely paddle but straight to the inside every time.
By the van load today.
2ft barely surfable burgers and there's 35 people out.
I've gone home to fold my washing ;)

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 3:21pm

,.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 2:27pm

Smaller today, mainly 3ft with the odd 3-4ft set. Didn't have anywhere near the push of yesterday either. Nice conditions under a light southerly.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 3:42pm

Yeah there were waves but the energy just wasn’t there compared with yesterday.

ilaydown's picture
ilaydown's picture
ilaydown commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 11:00pm

Goldy didn’t see a thing over 2ft all weekend and was still packed with cunce struggling to do a single turn

salt addict's picture
salt addict's picture
salt addict commented Monday, 29 Jun 2020 at 11:52am

The Goldy has always been busy with learners, not noticing a huge difference really.

JackStance's picture
JackStance's picture
JackStance commented Monday, 29 Jun 2020 at 4:52pm

anyone know where to find info on that artificial reef they were working on last year? up on the Goldie? - cheers

Breath. Murdoch's empire will one day fail to control our minds.