thermalben

Weekend o' south swell at the magnets

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 8th November)

Best Days: Sat/Sun/Mon: fun S'ly swell in Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld). Wed: small N'ly windswell. Thurs/Fri: more S'ly swell, best suited to Northern NSW. 

Recap: Easing S’ly swell Thursday offered early 2ft, almost 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches south of the border, but it was tiny elsewhere and early NW winds quickly swung N’ly and freshened as size continued to ease. Today has been tiny with very little surfing opportunities under a fresh N’ly breeze. There is some minor long period (20 second) energy showing on the buoys which could (should!) be the long range E/SE swell from the subtropical low well east of New Zealand earlier this week, but it’s too hard to tell (there ain’t much action on the cams).

Not much action at Snapper

Tiny but clean at Coffs this morning

Long period swell showing at the Gold Coast buoy

Spectral data from the Tweed buoy confirming the energy

This weekend (Nov 9 - 10)

No major changes to the weekend outlook.

First up: the faint long period E'ly swell showing on the buoys today really doesn't look especially promising, and there's not a lot of new surf showing on the cams right now. But we still can't rule out stray 2ft+ sets from the east on Saturday, mainly across locations north from about Yamba or thereabouts. It's a low percentage event so don't get your hopes up.

Elsewhere, and a series of fronts will rocket into the Tasman Sea overnight, building a series of overlapping short range S’ly swells from Saturday into Sunday, ahead of a peak early Monday. However these swells will only favour Northern NSW - we won’t see much action north of the border, away from exposed northern ends and reliable south swell magnets. 

The fetches trailing each front will be considerably off-axis (aligned SW-NE) but they’ll generate some decent size, initially building through Saturday, peaking late afternoon or early Sunday and then temporarily easing into Sunday afternoon. At its peak, wave heights should reach 3-4ft+ across south facing beaches south of Byron, though it’ll be smaller early Saturday and later Sunday. 

Away from reliable south swell magnets, expect much smaller surf - including much of SE Qld. The biggest surf we’ll see north of the border will be stray 2ft sets at exposed northern ends and south swell magnets (more so the Gold Coast than the Sunny Coast) late Saturday or early Sunday. I can't see much action anywhere else unless that long range E'ly swell makes an impression. 

Winds look generally OK all weekend, with a broad fresh SW flow across Northern NSW early Saturday easing through the day trending into an afternoon sea breeze. A similar though slightly weaker pattern is expected Sunday. And, locations north from the border will see even less wind: Sunday morning should be light and variable for quite a few hours. 

Next week (Nov 11 onwards)

The final pulse of southerly swell from this sequence will push through on Monday, providing 3-5ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, but smaller elsewhere and really not a lot of action again in SE Qld. We may see occasional 2-3ft waves at the exposed northern end of the Gold Coast, but it’ll be very small elsewhere and overall there’ll be a little less size on the Sunshine Coast.

Conditions should be really good through the morning with light variable winds ahead of afternoon sea breezes. 

Surf size will ease rapidly into Tuesday and freshening pre-frontal northerly winds will confine the best waves to protected northern ends in Northern NSW (without much surf on offer in SE Qld). 

These winds look pretty robust and should kick up a small punchy N’ly windswell for Wednesday across exposed spots, with winds veering NW during the day. It doesn’t look amazing but there should be surfable options up and down exposed beaches. 

Long term looks pretty interesting. A small trough may form off the SE Qld coast on Thursday, and there’s some potential for a local short range swell as a result (nothing major showing now, let’s keep an eye on it). 

Otherwise, another series of fronts will pass across Tasmanian latitudes early in the week. Late Wednesday should see an initial building S’ly swell from W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait later Tuesday, but only across the Mid North Coast (extending to Far Northern NSW on Thursday). This should perk up south facing beaches into the 2-3ft range, but as per the last Forecaster Notes, I’m much more interested in an associated series of much stronger fronts and lows south of Tasmania, which should generate better quality southerly groundswell for Thursday and Friday. 

Local winds are unclear at this stage, but at this stage we should see solid S’ly swell in the 3-5ft range across south facing beaches south of Byron for the last few days of the week.

Let’s take a closer look on Monday. 

Have a great weekend!

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 8 Nov 2019 at 7:42pm

41 degrees at Evans Head today. Staggering.

bccelebrant's picture
bccelebrant's picture
bccelebrant commented Friday, 8 Nov 2019 at 9:04pm

Hottest day in Potty this year and west of the hills was a furnace!! That cool change is just what the doctor ordered, oh and the coming waves too.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 9 Nov 2019 at 8:02am

Conditions aren't great but Coffs ain't lacking size this morning!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 9 Nov 2019 at 1:00pm

Playful afternoon at The Pass.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi commented Saturday, 9 Nov 2019 at 3:45pm

Geez bugger that. Snuck in a quick one south from there just before lunch, actually got a few nice bombs bit of chop to the face. Hopefully it's hanging around tomorrow morning still and winds are actually offshore

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 8:05pm

lolz

That "Dew of Little Things" clip looks nothing like this

cd's picture
cd's picture
cd commented Saturday, 9 Nov 2019 at 1:25pm

fatigue will become a problem for crews making things more dangerous as resourcing becomes an issue.

seen's picture
seen's picture
seen commented Saturday, 9 Nov 2019 at 10:39pm

That and a lateral change might spread the fire across its longest front....

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Saturday, 9 Nov 2019 at 1:40pm

New Byron camera..at Hemsworths joint ?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 9 Nov 2019 at 3:50pm

Same place as the existing Pass surfcam.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Saturday, 9 Nov 2019 at 6:23pm

? so the one with zoomed out pic and scaffold on left of screen is same camera ?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 9 Nov 2019 at 6:25pm

One location. Two cameras.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 9 Nov 2019 at 6:26pm

Anyway, isn't old mate on the backside of Broken Head, looking down Seven Mile?

I mean, I'd call him to clarify but I've lost his number.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 9 Nov 2019 at 3:51pm

Wobbly 3-4ft sets here this arvo. Had a shocking surf, all my fault though. Not gonna blame equipment. Just wasn't in the zone.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 11:51am

3 foot clean sets this morning, actually quite fun before tide got up. Thought it may have been a little bigger based on late yesterday.
Even a few 2-3 foot waves getting into more east facing beaches as the morning went on.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 5:00pm

Went south late last night a few hours away from home, woke up with the sun, waves looked average at first but after halfa it really turned on, fast hollow waves, plenty of barrels coming through, was real fun, got some gems. Kooked an absolute blinder sadly.
Punched a decent hole in my favourite board. Can't win em all i guess

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 5:44pm

Presented without comment.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 8:08pm

I'll Pass.
Seriously tho, how good a setup is that for little grommets, if you could just make all the adults nick off?

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 6:13pm

Looks like a comedy routine.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 6:22pm

Dystopian shitfight.

It’s basically over at that stage. Sure , you could go out for a laugh , but even the idea of getting a little rhythm up riding a log on some ankle biters is done.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 6:29pm

Still a good chance that it's all fun and smiles though.
I mean, it'd have to be, wouldn't it?
Take your log and have a laugh.

Beat me to it with your edit.

Yeah, the Pass is what it is but the problem is, it's spreading.
Broken, the Point, Boulders, Flattie...
Each one's got it's own little scene but often, it's just a few locals barely keeping things together.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 7:16pm

was more hectic down our way this morning Andy.

least most people play ankle high Pass for laughs.

lineup this morning was full of deadly serious dickheads with QLD plates and lots of different accents wildly flapping around and snaking each other in high tide 2ft Point surf.

yesterday arvo with the wind and current was heaps more fun, even if it didn't look as pretty.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 7:22pm

Aww mate, can only imagine. I used to surf your spot a fair bit but have had too many sessions like you’ve mentioned at 3-4 foot and just can’t do that anymore. Used to be you’d head down, paddle wide, bide your time, say hello and you’d get a few screamers. Have not found that for a long time now. Only save it for the solid days now.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 7:37pm

I'm thinking I got a watered down version of that around lunchtime - lots of Queenslanders and a French guy who just steamed past every time and sat about five metres inside, as did another old mate on his soft top.
Still got some waves but you shouldn't have to push that hard to get some 2ft sideshore runners.

FR are you saying that the local this morning was actually more hectic than that grab of The Pass?
I'm hoping you're just talking about the vibe and the intent.

The highlight of my surf was chatting with the local 73 year old stalwart and seeing him paddle into a few decent ones.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 7:49pm

yeah, just the vibe of the thing.
was kind of funny.
I got my three waves and was done for the day.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 8:00pm

Like James Brown said, hit it and quit.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 8:03pm

Andy and FR are you guys still having regular shark sightings or encounters up there?
Just wondering if it’s eased off a bit

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 8:52pm

Haven't heard anything around the traps though I'm not sure what's been happening on Dorsalwatch.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 8:16pm

Every single French cock needs to have the loss of Australian life whilst defending their country reinforced heavily every single time they take the piss whilst they are visiting as tourists in our country.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 8:56pm

That reminds me of a story I heard the other day.

Mate of mine was out in the water a few days ago and got dropped in on by some French guy, not once but twice.
Second time, French guy just looked back at my buddy and then kept going.
My mate is pretty forward and was straight into him for the rent.
Frenchie was totally unrepentant, saying he's spent "10 grand to be here".

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 9:29pm

WTF, I’d set up camp in his own personal space after that. Could not tolerate it

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Sunday, 10 Nov 2019 at 9:37pm

trouble is it is starting to happen anywhere that has a consistent wave.....

simba

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 6:50am

No shortage of S'ly swell at Coffs this morning.



Meanwhile at The Pass...

And a coupla small sliders at Snapper.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Monday, 11 Nov 2019 at 12:29pm

looks like the bank is gone again at Snapper?