South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 10th February)

Best Days: Average trade swell from Thurs thru' Sun. Unreal beachbreaks Mon/Tues with a combo of NE thru' E/SE swell and light winds, easing Wed. Lots of potential beyond Thurs too.

Recap: Wind affected, average surf on Tuesday as short range S/SE windswell built across the coast. The surf improved into today as the direction swung a little more to the SE, and winds veered S/SW in a few locations (mainly north of Byron, and south of Yamba). Surf size reached a bumpy peak in the 3-5ft range at exposed beaches in Far Northern NSW, but it was smaller north of the border and also south of Ballina. Overall, it’s been a little rough and ready but there were certainly some fun options about the coast this morning.

This week (Feb 11th - 12th)

There’s really no major trend expected for the next few days. The source of our current swell - a broad, but ultimately moderate strength ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea - is expected to remain relatively stationary over the coming days. 

We’ll see small periods of intensification within this fetch - in particular, I can see that a small trough embedded within this pattern may retrograde westwards later Thursday, to be just off the Far North Coast throughout Friday -  but it’s hard to be confident that we’ll see any major increase or decrease in surf size throughout this period. Especially when the tide seems to be playing an equally significant factor in the surf quality department anyway.

So, we’ll probably see things settle back a little from today, with surf size around 3ft+ across exposed beaches in Far Northern NSW, and slightly smaller surf south of Ballina (2-3ft), and north of the border (2ft, very occasionally 2-3ft). It'll be patchy on the points, especially around high water, but there should be plenty of small waves on offer. 

Local conditions look a little mixed for the next few days too. A persistent ridge through the Coral Sea will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds across SE Qld both days, though localised periods of light SW winds are possible early morning (probably just the southern Gold Coast). These winds will extend south to about Ballina, but south of Yamba we’re looking at more of a light and variable flow, tending moderate E/SE on Thursday and then SE on Friday.

Friday afternoon’s winds across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld are expected to ratchet up a notch or two in the afternoon as the offshore trough moves a little further to the coast - tightening the pressure gradient between it and the coastal ridge - so this will certainly confine the only rideable options after lunch to the southern outer points. Don’t expect much size across the inner points though.

This weekend (Feb 13th - 14th)

The weekend’s surf outlook almost mirrors that of the next few days. Which is, peaky mid range trade swell with fresh, gusty S/SE winds on Saturday becoming light and variable on Sunday.

Saturday’s airstream will be a litltle lighter across the Mid North Coast, but with only average surf on offer there won’t be much to get excited about.

As for size, let’s keep Saturday’s heights similar to Friday afternoon’s: 3ft+ at exposed beaches in Far Northern NSW, but 2-3ft across SE Qld and south of Ballina or Yamba.

Wave heights may ease a smidge into Sunday but conditions should be a lot better with the light winds. 

Next week (Feb 15th onwards)

Righto. These tropical developments discussed on Monday are throwing many a curveball.

First of all, we actually have two Tropical Cyclones to consider - one developing in the Coral Sea (a high chance it’ll be named by the BOM on Thursday), and another east of the Solomon Islands (moderate chance it’ll be named by RMSC NADI on Thursday or Friday).

At this stage the Coral Sea cyclone doesn’t look like it’s going to be a direct swell producer for us however its presence will assist in stabilising a supporting  ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea, which - in addition to any cyclone swell - will maintain useful trade swell across our coastline through the first half of next week.

The second tropical cyclone (west of the Solomons) is much bigger and broader, and has far greater swell potential. However, the latest model runs have sped up the second half of its southwards track, once it passes New Caledonian latitudes - and this is of concern. Whilst the synoptics look good in isolation, this particular track is not favourable for significant swell production as it is perpendicular to the Great Circle paths. 

Still, I think we’ll see some potentially useful groundswell from this system, originating from its position as it passes south of Fiji and just starts to enter our swell window (from behind the swell shadow of New Caledonia). Model guidance is reasonably consistent in there being a reasonable NE fetch around the eastern flank of this system, and its forward speed at that point is not too detrimental to swell production for the Australian East Coast.

However, the fetch looks like it’ll be aimed mainly towards southern NSW regions, so I am concerned as to how much size we might see in SE Qld from this episode. So, I'll need to revise this thinking in the coming days. 

The leading edge of this (E/NE, maybe even NE) swell is due on Monday, and should build throughout the day ahead of peak on Tuesday. But we’ll concurrently see a bigger, building E/SE swell, originating from the southern flank of this system as it ridges up against a broad high to the south. So we’re looking at a peaky mix of swells in the water - this should favour the open beach breaks nicely. 

And the good news for this is that we’re expecting relatively light winds around this time, with a weak trough moving through that probably won’t cause too many problems. Winds may turn a little funky at times, but we’re certainly not looking at a driving ridge of sou'easters - so the beach breaks should really be quite optimal throughout this swell event.

As for size - I’m aiming for somewhere in the 3-5ft range across much of Northern NSW at the height of the swell on Tuesday, with 3-4ft surf in SE Qld (a little smaller to begin with early Monday, but building steadily all day). Of the two swells, I am expecting the E/SE to be the dominant component, with the NE energy being much smaller and less consistent. 

This event will then ease slowly through Wednesday.

Looking further ahead and there are dynamic suggestions for a deep Tasman Low developing early next week, which may lead to a strong south swell mid-late week - but it’s way too early to have any confidence on this, especially with several (yet to develop) cyclones in the mid-term progs too. Let’s revise all of this in Friday’s notes.