South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th August)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: Solid, windy SE swell, best suited to the points. Sat/Sun: strong rebuilding S/SE swell with generally favourable conditions (esp Sun, as the swell eases). Mon: easing surf with offshore winds. 

Recap: Pumping waves at regional points with a strong E’ly tending SE swell and gusty winds from the W/SW thru’ S/SW (however winds have gone more southerly across the Mid North Coast). Set waves were in the 6ft range at exposed Northern NSW breaks today (smaller north of the border) and appear to have increased this afternoon (qualified by Byron Bay buoy data, which is showing a strong upwards trend). However SE Qld hasn’t quite yet picked up the increase - it seems to be tracking late and will probably show overnight, with a peak tomorrow morning.

This week (Aug 28-29)

After almost five days of pumping east tending south-east swell, it’s hard to imagine that we’re in for more. But the charts don’t lie and the next few days will continue this ongoing theme of strong Tasman activity.

A broad low pressure system in the Northern Tasman Sea is slowly tracking southwards, and a healthy easterly fetch between it and a large high pressure system to the south is expected to remain in position for several days. Another round of slightly stronger SE swell that started to fill in this afternoon will reach a peak in the early hours of Thursday morning before easing throughout the day.

Size wise, we’re looking at anywhere from 8-10ft+ across some exposed parts of the Northern NSW and Mid North coasts, however strong south-east tending southerly winds will write off all but the most protected southern corners.

SE Qld will once again be your best bet on Thursday although size will be much smaller north of the border. And that’s a good thing, as it’s still going to be quite solid - between 4ft and occasionally 6ft across the semi-exposed points with large, wind affected waves at exposed south facing beaches. However keep in mind that the really sheltered points (I’m looking at you, Noosa) will heavily attenuate the SE swell direction so don’t expect a great deal of size inside the inner points. 

In any case, fresh and gusty SW tending S/SW winds will continue to favour the points but we’re likely to see an enhanced northwards sweep compared to the last few days, so you’ll need your paddling arms in good working order.

On Friday, surf size will start to taper off steadily as the swell source slips into the southern Tasman. We’re actually expecting the Tasman low to retrograde westward during Friday, pushing up towards the southern NSW coast which will increase the pressure gradient and in turn strengthen a southerly airstream about the coastal margin. 

However in Northern NSW and SE Qld, the wind will veer more SW in direction (almost an outflow around the low) but there’ll still be a lot of size on offer - down to perhaps 5-6ft+ at south facing beaches in Northern NSW (smaller but quality surf at the semi-exposed points), and much smaller north of the border, around 3ft across the semi-exposed Gold and Sunshine Coast points, and much less consistent than the previous few days. Surf size is likely to even become smaller throughout the day.  

Either way, the size of this this swell and the local winds are really going to focus the best waves to the usual haunts so work around the tides for the best waves as we see a slow easing trend through this period.

This weekend (Aug 30-31)

We’re now a little closer to the weekend, and the models are starting to take shape with what’s in store surf wise. 

Friday’s retrograding low across the southern Tasman Sea is expected to kick up a strong renewal of S/SE swell during Saturday however by this time the fetch will be positioned much closer to the mainland, and the fetch alignment will be much further off-axis for the southern Queensland coast. This suggests that we’ll see an even stronger southerly component in the swell direction which could really limit wave heights north of the border. 

However there won’t be any shortage of size in Northern NSW. Exposed south facing beaches are looking at another kick back up into the 6-8ft range, and with SW thru’ S/SW winds on hand the semi-exposed points will be smaller but much cleaner. However despite favourable winds for the Gold and Sunshine Coast points, we’re looking at smaller surf here - perhaps pulsing to 2-3ft+ at the height of the swell on Saturday afternoon (maybe a little smaller earlier) - so keep your size expectations in check. 

By Sunday we’ll be on the backside of this swell event and winds will return to a light to moderate W/SW as the pressure gradient relaxes across the coast. It’ll still be quite sizeable early morning in Northern NSW (dawn sets in the 4-6ft range at south facing beaches, but dropping steadily) however wave heights may start to become a little borderline for the southern Qld points - just enough to consider a go-out, but not consistent enough to handle the weekend crowds. But even if this scenario occurs, the more favourable winds will start to open up options along the open beaches in most areas. I’ll review this in more detail in Friday’s notes. Either way, the weekend is looking pretty tasty in most areas. 

Longer term (Sep 1 onwards)

Steadily easing swells and light winds tending NW are expected on Monday as this event clears our swell window. 

Looking further ahead, and an amplifying Long Wave Trough across the south-eastern corner of the country early next week is expected to drive a series of cold fronts across the southern NSW coast, resulting in a sharp increase in short range southerly swell for Northern NSW through Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday and maybe even Thursday - but probably too south to be of any major benefit to the Gold Coast. Let’s take a closer look on Friday.