Fun beachies Saturday, small Qld points Monday
Southeast Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 11th June)
Best Days: Sat: Clean with an easing combo of swells. Late Sun/Mon, maybe even Tues: should be some small OK waves across semi exposed points in SE Qld. Wed/Thurs/Fri: easing S'ly swell with improving conditions (in Northern NSW, not much in SE Qld).
Recap: Solid SE swell with great conditions across the region on Thursday, mainly 4-5ft across most parts of Northern NSW but much smaller in SE Qld. Surf size eased today but conditions remained very good. A new south swell built across the Northern NSW coast today, reaching the Far North this afternoon.
This weekend (July 12-13)
Hands up who scored some pumping waves yesterday or today? The SE groundswell performed very well right across the East Coast, and even came in a little higher than expected in the Far North of NSW, with a similar size as what was reported across the Mid North Coast. SE Qld saw plenty of surf but it was generally small and inconsistent away from south facing breaks.
We’re well and truly on the backside of this swell event; it and the fresh south swell that arrived today will both throttle back through Saturday. However, Saturday is absolutely your best day to surf this weekend because we’re expecting gusty a gusty southerly change that’ll significantly reduce options for the second half of the weekend.
Aim for exposed south facing beaches for the most size Saturday (3-4ft sets early in Northern NSW, very small away from these locations and in SE Qld). Wave heights will ease throughout the day but winds should be mainly W/SW for the most part, so it'll be clean across the beachies.
On Sunday we’ll see a building south swell in the wake of a gusty change, that could very well reach 4-5ft+ across exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW. However, accompanying fresh to strong S/SW tending S’ly winds will really limit options to the protected southern corners. Note: winds may be briefly W/SW in the few hours around dawn in the Far North, but the south swell will be trailing the change so if we see this window of favourable winds, surf size will probably be only small.
In SE Qld, I’m not expecting much of an increase until after lunch on Sunday - and even then it’ll be very south in direction, and won’t really get into protected locations due to the southerly direction and low swell period. A handful of semi exposed points offering a degree of protection should have some late options but for the most part those beaches picking up the bulk of this swell will be completely blown out. Prior to the swell increase, Sunday morning will be very small throughout SE Qld with early W/SW tending SW winds (the S’ly change is due mid-morning or thereabouts).
Next week (July 14-18)
Monday looks OK for the semi exposed points across SE Qld. Whilst the swell direction will very southerly, the sheer breadth of the southerly fetch covering the Tasman Sea should help to override some of these directional deficiencies. And with winds generally holding moderate to fresh from the south (following an early SW’er) these spots will probably be your only real option anyway.
Elsewhere on Monday across the greater Northern NSW region and exposed south facing beaches north of the border, there’ll be a lot more size (4-5ft+ south swell magnets, easing) but with a lotta wind on it. A secondary front rounding the Tasmanian bend into the Tasman Sea on Sunday will maintain southerly energy through into Tuesday morning although with an overall easing trend. Winds will gradually veer to the south-east during the day so away from the points there’s not going to be much love.
By Wednesday a high developing in the southern Tasman Sea will result in lighter winds, ahead of a familiar freshening NW tending gusty W’ly trend for the back half of the week. This period will be accompanied by an ever-easing S’ly swell, so south swell magnets will be your best option during this period.
These freshening winds will be related to an approaching frontal system (yet again) through the same storm track as what we’ve seen over the last few months - quite north in latitude across Bass Strait (leading to another great round of snowfall!) - but the ramifications for surfers means flukey sources of south swell are possible late Friday across the Mid North Coast (perhaps 3ft or so at south facing beaches). More on this in Monday's update.
Long term (July 19 onwards)
As this weather progression clears Bass Strait and into the Tasman Sea on Saturday, we’ll see a much more pronounced chance at southerly swell at some point through next weekend and into the first few days of the following week. So right now all eyes will be on exactly when this occurs, as it could become quite sizeable - but we’ll have to see how the models evolve things over the coming week. Tune in Monday for more details.