And it came from the south
Southeast Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 30th June)
Best Days: Tues/Wed: strong, building S'ly groundswell with SW tending S'ly winds (expect only small surf in SE Qld though). Thurs: strong S/SE groundswell with light variable winds (again, only small in SE Qld). Fri: easing S/SE swell with light winds.
Recap: Strong N’ly winds overnight Friday kicked up a minor short range windswell for exposed beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW on Saturday, which combined with small levels of leftover south swell. Both swells then faded throughout the day. Sunday was left tiny and clean with offshore winds. Monday has dawned much the same but a new south swell should be starting to appear across the lower Mid North Coast (southern NSW is already 4ft and building at exposed beaches).
This week (July 1 - July 4)
As was discussed much of last week, the Long Wave Trough is amplifying across Tasman and New Zealand longitudes, and will result in a prolonged region of strong to gale force S/SW winds stretching from polar latitudes right up into the Tasman Sea.
Wave heights will build further throughout Tuesday, ahead of a peak in size late afternoon and for much of Wednesday. South facing beaches in Northern NSW should manage 4-6ft surf, however locations not open to the south will be considerably smaller. However, winds will swing from a morning SW’er to a fresh southerly both afternoons so this will confine the best waves to protected locations.
In SE Qld, surf size will be only small due the significant size loss attributable to the swell direction. Exposed south facing locations should pick up 3ft+ sets but these spots will probably be quite wind affected. Otherwise, expect inconsistent 1-2ft waves at most Gold/Sunshine Coast beaches at best.
Thursday looks like it’ll be the pick of the week, especially at various points in Northern NSW. A small low is modelled to form well SE of Tasmania (and SW of New Zealand) early tomorrow, before rocketing up through the central Tasman Sea. It’s not aimed very well for the East Coast but the associated kick in swell period - thanks to the fetch working on the pre-existing sea state - could really amplify wave heights at exposed reefs/deepwater locations open to the south.
At the same time, a high pressure system will become established across the coastal margin and this will create light variable winds in most regions. Set waves could push well in excess of 6ft+ at exposed spots in Northern NSW on Thursday morning; however once again it’ll be much smaller at protected spots. SE Qld will again be considerably smaller than locations south of the border but I'm reasonably confident that it should be noticeably bigger than Tues/Wed's efforts.
As for Friday, we’re likely to be on the downwards trend of this extended series of south swells by then, and conditions should be clean with light variable winds. However, there’s a chance for an upgrade on current model guidance (again, mainly in Northern NSW): another strong front trailing the broad mid-week progression (through the Tasman Sea overnight Wednesday/early Thursday) is split between the computer models as to where it’ll strengthen and focus, and it’s possible that we may see another pulse of southerly energy to finish the week. But I’ll have a closer look at that in Wednesday’s update.
This weekend (July 5-6)
Lots of divergence between the models right now, so we’re going to need a few days before fine tuning the weekend forecast. But in general the overarching theme looks to continue the run of southerly groundswell for the region, from a couple of sources (both distant and near). Overall I’m confident there’ll be some decent waves but let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.
Long term (July 7 onwards)
Again, with divergent model guidance we really can’t speculate too much on next week’s surf however we’re in the midst of a fluid, mobile Long Wave pattern and this certainly tips the balance in favour of a steady stream of southerly swells for the long term. More on this in Wednesday’s forecast notes.
deadset a *0.5 has snuck into the crowdy head buoy recording station computer...
It would be great to see some decent swell for the Sunny Coast sometime soon.
Bobb, come back in January mate!!!!
Bobb beggars can't be choosers at the moment mate did you get any early Sunday? 2ft of north swell and offshore along the maroochy stretch, took a bigger board, good times
Gee what happened this morning. Swell is half of what it was yesterday on the Tweed buoy!!! Bit of a hoax swell this morning me thinks.
It's been a really pulsey event in Sydney, Don. Up and down over 6-12 hour cycles, all related to the large number of short wave features embedded within the broad southerly stream. As such it's been difficult to nail down the specifics in advance.
After I posted the above I got some first hand reports of the conditions this morning. Let's just say that the Tweed buoys was clearly shielded this morning!!!
Yeah been watching the D'Bah cam this morning. Looks close to what I was watching y'day, maybe a shade under (seen a few 2-3ft sets).
I got reports of 4 ft this morning which looking at the Tweed and Goldy wave buoys is mind boggling.
Yep smaller today than yesterday for sure.
But like you say Ben pulsing...! I can't hang at the beach all day, work to do around the house;)
Hopefully back up a little tomorrow morn.