South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday July 30th)

Best Days: Later morning Saturday South Coast, Sunday South Coast, Tuesday South Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, weak mix of swells tomorrow with E/NE tending fresh S/SE-SE winds
• Moderate sized, inconsistent groundswell Fri with E-E/NE tending S/SE-SE winds
• Reinforcing, slightly smaller SW groundswell later Fri/Sat, easing, smaller Sun
• Variable offshore winds Sat ahead of weak sea breezes
• Moderate N/NE tending fresher N-N/NW winds Sun
• Small Mon with strong N/NW-N winds
• Mod-large W/SW groundswell Tue with strong N/NW-NW winds
• Larger W/SW groundswell likely Thu/Fri with lighter winds

Recap

The South Coast offered fun surf yesterday morning with a light offshore wind and mostly clean 2-3ft sets, a bit lumpy into the afternoon.

This morning conditions are a lot lumpier and not ideal with a weak S’ly swell to 2-3ft under east winds. The Mid Coast has been in the tiny 0.5-1ft range.

This week and next (Jul 31 - Aug 8)

Tomorrow looks average for a surf with a weak S/SE windswell met under morning E/NE winds, creating lacklustre conditions. The afternoon will become poor with freshening S/SE-SE winds.

Into Friday our new, inconsistent, long-period SW groundswell is due to fill in, generated by a very strong but short-lived polar low that formed around the Heard Island region earlier this week.

Satellite observations picked up 50-60kt core winds, though the sets will be very inconsistent. Middleton looks to come in at 3-4ft with the Mid Coast only being tiny.

A secondary pulse of smaller, reinforcing SW groundswell is due later Friday and Saturday morning, slowing the easing trend from Friday, generated by follow up frontal activity generating gale to severe-gale W/NW winds through our south-western swell window.

Middleton should come in at 3ft+ Saturday morning, easing through the day, then smaller Sunday.

Local winds on Friday aren’t ideal with a light E-E/NE breeze creating lumpy conditions, improving slowly Saturday under variable offshore winds. The early will likely be lumpy again before improving ahead of sea breezes.

Sunday is the pick with a moderate N/NE offshore, shifting N/NW-N and freshening during the day.

Monday looks windy and small with an approaching mid-latitude frontal system expected to bring strengthening N-N/NW winds. We may see some weak, building W/SW swell across the Mid Coast into the afternoon but the outlook is more active from Tuesday.

We’re set to see an initial strong polar frontal system projecting up towards Western Australia later this week, generating a strong, moderate to large sized W/SW groundswell for Tuesday, while a secondary slower moving and stronger frontal progression pushing towards and under the country early next week looks to generate a larger W/SW groundswell for the end of the week (Thursday/Friday).

The sizes and winds are still up for grabs but the Mid Coast looks initially windy and onshore, possibly improving later week but we’ll review this Friday.