South Australian Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday May 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun waves all week along the Mid, best Thurs with light variable winds (though size will be easing)
• Building size at Victor, clean Tues with offshore winds, peaking later Wed (with tricky winds) and early Thurs (with light winds)
• Great waves at Victor Fri and Sat, easing Sun, clean the whole period with light winds
• Small waves for most of next week

Recap

Wave heights remained very small across the MId Coast all weekend, though Victor offered fun clean 2-3ft waves on Saturday, easing to 1-2ft on Sunday under an offshore breeze. A new W/SW groundswell has built across both coasts today, with the Mid seeing wind affected 3ft sets thanks to moderate to fresh northerlies, whilst Victor built to 3-4ft at Middleton under blustery offshore winds. Bigger waves are on offer at exposed spots.

Middleton saw plenty of waves like this today (how's the inside line!)...

But also plenty of lengthy spells like this

This week (May 6 - 9)

We’ve got some super fun waves coming up over the coming days.

A strong frontal progression through the Bight is generating back-to-back groundswells that are already showing now across the region. It’s a classic wintereqsue pattern too with the fronts pushing nice and close to the coast, resulting in freshening NW winds for Tuesday that’ll eventually veer W’ly through Wednesday morning and then SW into the afternoon before easing Thursday and becoming light and variable. However, wind strengths won’t be too strong so conditions should be manageable most days across both coasts.

Along the Mid Coast, we’re looking at fluctuating surf Tuesday in the 2-3ft range, gradually easing from today and becoming a little inconsistent, and it’ll be wobbly at times under the onshore flow. Middleton however will see a little more size as the swell direction swings a little more to the SW, so Middleton could see size anywhere in the 3-4ft, almost 3-5ft range (with much more consistency than today). 

On Wednesday, a secondary swell will push through that should rebuild surf size on the Mid from 1-2ft back up into the 2-3ft range by the afternoon, and conditions are looking fun with generally light to moderate onshore winds. Wave heights will then ease from this size range through Thursday with the best conditions of the week under a light variable pattern.

Victor Harbor will see a peak in surf size through Wednesday afternoon, possibly even early Thursday with Middleton likely to push the 5-6ft mark. Wednesday’s conditions will be best in the morning with moderate pre-frontal W’ly winds ahead of a SW trend through the day; Thursday looks nice and clean all day under the light variable flow. 

The other feature of this swell worth discussing is the consistency. I’m expecting a slightly higher wave count than normal (mainly at Victor over the Mid) due to the close range nature of the storm track, and also the overlapping swell trains that will be borne from a multitude of swell sources contained within this frontal conveyor belt. 

Although surf size will ease further on Friday, we’re still looking at decent 3-4ft sets across the Middleton stretch under light variable (tending offshore) winds, which should produce very nice waves at many spots. Along the Mid Coast we’ll see easing size but there should still be some fun clean 2ft sets on the more favourable parts of the tide.

This weekend (May 10 - 11)

Despite the focus on this week’s impressive swell event, we’ve got some nice waves due this weekend too.

A weak high pressure ridge across the state will maintain light winds both days, keeping conditions nice and clean.

As for surf, a poorly aligned front well below the continent mid-week (see below) will generate a W/NW swell through the Southern Ocean that should bend back into the South Coast, maintaining 3ft sets at Middleton. However, the poor alignment of this fetch to the SA coast means that set waves will be quite inconsistent at times (especially compared to Wed/Thurs).

Similar conditions are expected on Sunday but with a little less size as this swell throttles back.

Unfortunately, this swell will originate from outside of the Mid’s swell window so I’m only expecting small residual energy in the gulf this weekend - rideable for beginners, but not much for most shortboarders. 

Next week (May 12 onwards)

The broadscale storm track will quieten down from around Friday onwards, with a blocking high in the Southern Ocean steering swell systems generally away from our primary swell window.

As such, most of next week is looking small throughout the state - though early indications are for light winds under a high pressure system, which should favour exposed coasts with fun waves (banks pending, of course). 

Longer term has the storm track redeveloping later in the week, which may lead to a more pronounced increase in surf size from next Sunday (or thereabouts) into the following week.

See you Wednesday!