Average weekend, fun Tuesday morning
South Australian Forecast (issued Friday 6th February)
Best Days: Saturday for desperate surfers at exposed breaks, Tuesday morning for peaky fun waves, possibly early Wednesday, Thursday on the Mid
Fresh E/SE winds created poor conditions across the South Coast yesterday while the Mid remained tiny to flat. Today conditions improved under morning offshore breezes that have persistent into the early afternoon. The Mid Coast was also clean but effectively flat.
This weekend and next week (Feb 7 – 13)
Tomorrow morning will be clean across the South Coast but small to tiny and only really surfable at the exposed beaches west of Victor. Expect small and inconsistent 1-2ft waves, building a touch into the afternoon and evening with the arrival of a new long-range SW groundswell.
Offshore N'ly winds should persist most of the morning, shifting more NW early afternoon ahead of an onshore change mid-late afternoon. This change will then write-off the surf into Sunday with strengthening S/SE winds due with a mix of small SW groundswell and building S/SE windswell.
Heading into next week, Monday will be better than Sunday as winds tend more E/SE through the morning, but still average to poor with an average mix of bumpy and messy SW and S/SE windswell.
Tuesday looks much better as a new SW groundswell arrives under morning NE winds. This swell will be generated over the weekend by a broad but not overly strong polar frontal system, becoming strongest just to our south-southwest before passing under Tassie and out of our swell window.
Middleton should offer 2-3ft waves, with 3-4ft sets at Waits with peaky but improving conditions under a light morning NE'ly. SE sea breezes will kick in through the day, so mid-late morning will be the pick.
Wednesday morning may offer a period of variable winds from the east early with a new building SW groundswell but this will only be temporary before a fresh S/SE change moves through.
Wednesday's building long-range swell will be inconsistent but strong, with a secondary slightly more consistent and bigger follow up swell due Thursday.
The long-range swell should be generated by an intense but small polar low firing up south-west of WA over the weekend, tracking east-southeast while weakening and breaking down along a line south of Albany.
A very inconsistent but good groundswell should result, building to 2-3ft at Middleton and 3-4ft at Waits with 1ft sets on the Mid.
The secondary swell will be generated by a weaker but broader frontal system firing up on the tail of the original front and pushing more east through our western swell window and to about the Bight. This should produce a more consistent swell for Thursday to 1-2ft on the favourable parts of the tide on the Mid and a good 3ft at Middleton with 4-5ft sets at Waits.
Unfortunately as pointed out above winds will go onshore Wednesday and fresh from the S/SE with favourable SE winds for the Mid Thursday, while keeping the South Coast poor.
On the backside of the swell Friday there's an outside chance of offshore winds down South, but we'll review this Monday. Have a great weekend!