thermalben

Friday morning the pick of the forecast period

South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 4th February)

Best Days: Friday AM, Saturday down south (but only small in size). Very slim chance for a tiny wave on the Mid Coast Saturday PM and Sunday.

Recap: Almost a carbon copy of the previous week - onshore crud down south and near-flat conditions on the Mid.

Next week (Feb 5 - 6)

No change to the forecast for the rest of the week. Thursday will likely see flat clean conditions on the Mid, and Victor will remain horribly blown out with fresh E/SE winds. 

As mentioned on Monday, a tiny long range groundswell may appear at the Cape du Couedic buoy later today, with some possible tiny teasers showing across the Mid on Thursday but I’m doubtful it’ll be surfable, if it shows anything at all. 

On Friday, as a high pressure system migrates below the state, winds will tend light NE down south early morning (then probably E’ly during the day). So the early session should see somewhat of a reasonable improvement in conditions (though given a few weeks of sou’easters, who knows what state the banks will be in, and where the seaweed will be piled up). 

As for surf, there won’t be any real groundswell in the water but a persistent SE fetch extending north-west from western Bass Strait right now should generate 2-3ft of peaky short range S/SE swell for the region (this is somewhat of an unusual swell direction, and should provide a relatively uniform size distribution across the South Coast). It'll certainly be worth a look at Waits and Parsons, given what we’ve been dealt conditions-wise over the last few weeks.

Otherwise, expect tiny to flat conditions to persist on the Mid.

This weekend (Feb 7 - 8)

A gusty southerly change is due early Sunday morning and this will wipe off surf prospects down south for the day, so aim for a Victor session on Saturday for the best conditions under a light N’ly breeze.

Unfortunately, Friday’s S/SE swell will have eased back and with no significant new groundswell in the water it’ll be slim pickings at exposed beaches, just a couple of feet at best. Sunday should see a return to the seasonal norm (freshening S’ly tending SE winds, limited surf options). 

On the Mid Coast, there’s likely to be very little surf but as we all know you can’t completely write off surf prospects in the gulf.

We will see some tiny long period energy building throughout Saturday, as detailed in Monday’s notes, originating from a complex merger of several weather systems in the Southern Indian Ocean: Severe Tropical Cyclone Eunice, Tropical Storm Diamondra, and also a strong polar low at similar longitudes, which will essentially sweep up the two tropical systems into the low latitude westerly flow. Of all of these systems, the polar low has the most swell generating potential, but being positioned well SW of West Oz means that the large distance will significantly impact swell heights. 

Going out on a limb, it’s possible that we may see some stray 1ft sets later Saturday and throughout Sunday (mainly with the assistance of a tidal push) but I can’t really offer much more than to keep a close eye on the South Port surfcam. Either way I can’t see there being anything of great interest this weekend.

Next week (Feb 9 onwards)

The weather charts are looking better for the long term, with several frontal progressions expected to develop from this weekend onwards. This is expected to supply moderate groundswell for the region for much of next week and the following weekend, with possibly enough for some small peelers on the Mid Coast - however local winds are undetermined at this stage. Tune in Friday for more.

Comments

surfstarved's picture
surfstarved's picture
surfstarved commented Wednesday, 4 Feb 2015 at 5:02pm

Holy shit, northerlies! The only other offshore days we've had this year so far fanned the worst bushfires seen in SA for 30 years, so let's hope these ones are just a little bit kinder to us Hills-dwellers.

Don't let the bastards grind you down