Large swell for Sunday/Monday, oversized Thursday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 4th May)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period (experienced surfers only Sunday through Friday)

This week and next (May 5 - 12)

Bali: Great waves the last couple of days, with a new SW groundswell building through yesterday, keeping fun sets hitting the region this morning. We'll see the swell continue to ease through tomorrow, bottoming out temporarily early Saturday.

Our large S/SW groundswell event due through the weekend is still on track, with the vigorous polar frontal progression linked to it now moving east out of our swell window, under Western Australia.

A slight increase in size is due Saturday, but the groundswell proper should build through Sunday, reaching 6-8ft across exposed breaks with a peak Monday morning more consistently up in that 8ft range.

A drop in size is then due into the afternoon, further down Tuesday and Wednesday.

Our larger and stronger SW groundswell event for late next week is also still on track.

This swell will be produced by a significant polar frontal progression in the southern Indian Ocean.

Currently a vigorous polar front is projecting a fetch of S/SW gales through our south-west swell window, producing a moderate sized SW groundswell for later Wednesday.

Behind this though a much more expansive fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW tending SW winds will project north-east through our south-west swell window. This progression will project fairly far north into the Indian Ocean which will result in less swell decay and a more consistent swell event.

The swell is due to arrive overnight Wednesday building rapidly to an oversized 10-12ft across exposed breaks Thursday in Bali, peaking overnight and easing from the 10ft range Friday morning.

Throughout the coming period moderate to fresh E/SE trades will create great conditions on the marquee reefs with periods of more variable breezes early each morning.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: Good waves the last few days but the swell is now slowly easing across the region. Smaller surf is due tomorrow ahead of some new swell over the weekend.

Saturday should see a bump in swell to 4-6ft at exposed breaks ahead of the stronger S/SW groundswell Sunday and Monday in the 5-6ft+ range. Light variable winds will create favourable conditions and persist through next week as the swell eases back into Tuesday.

The oversized groundswell due across Bali late next week will come in more form the south in the Mentawais, arriving overnight Wednesday and peaking through Thursday in the 10ft range.

A slow drop in size is then expected Friday from 8ft, smaller into the weekend, bottoming out Sunday week. Longer term it looks like we'll see a slower period of surf, but more on this in Tuesday's update.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 8 May 2017 at 1:26pm

Great footage from the last swell.. Flying over Hollow Trees - video