Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 17th April)

This week through next (Apr 18 - 25)

The surf has eased since early week, with a minimal increase in background mid-period SW swell due later today but more so tomorrow morning.

Of greater importance is the S/SW groundswell due into Saturday, with it performing well across Western Australia yesterday and this morning.

The source was a strong polar low projecting north-east towards Western Australia, generating a good fetch of gale to severe-gale force W/SW winds.

Large sets are due at the peak of the swell Saturday, easing slowly Sunday as westerly winds tomorrow and Saturday morning back off and tend more variable Sunday.

Now, into next week we’ve got easing surf ahead of a long-range, inconsistent SW groundswell Wednesday, with the polar low linked to it forming south of South Africa earlier this week, followed by a secondary frontal system projecting up over the active sea state yesterday and this morning.

It’ll be inconsistent but strong with the swell due to build through Wednesday, likely peaking later in the day/evening if not into Thursday morning.

Longer term a smaller S/SW groundswell is due next weekend, but the polar low linked to it is quite small and short-lived.

As a result the swell only looks moderate in size but a good groundswell, likely peaking later Saturday and into Sunday morning.

Otherwise the outlook gets slower into the end of the month and start of May so make the most of the coming swells.

In the Mentawais the weekend’s N/NW-NW winds look stronger now, peaking through Sunday before slowly easing next week but persisting until about Wednesday. 

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Maldives:

There’s no real change to the coming outlook with a new mid-period S/SW swell for today and tomorrow morning due to ease into the weekend.

We should then see building levels of small S/SE trade-swell on the weekend ahead of our better pulse from the SE due Monday/Tuesday, pushing more to the moderate size range on the sets.

Of greater significance is the large S/SW groundswell from the strong polar low south of South Africa into Monday afternoon, peaking Tuesday.

This should provide strong sets on the southern atolls with smaller sets wrapping into the central atolls, easing slowly through the middle to end of the week.

Otherwise the outlook is also slow into the end of the month with small levels of S/SE trade-swell mixed in with small to moderate levels of S/SW swell due.

Winds will remain fresh from the W/NW-W tomorrow, easing slowly over the weekend and then light to moderate W/SW through next week. Winds might tend a little SW Wednesday.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small, inconsistent mid-period SW swell for later today but more so tomorrow morning to 3-5ft across exposed breaks.

Moderate + sized S/SW groundswell for Saturday to 6ft across exposed breaks during the day, easing slowly Sunday.

Inconsistent, long-range but mod-large sized SW groundswell building Wednesday week, reaching 6ft+ later if not Thursday morning, then slowly easing.

Moderate to fresh W/NW-NW winds tomorrow and Saturday morning, easing from the afternoon and more variable from Sunday with weak sea breezes.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, inconsistent mid-period SW swell for tomorrow to 3-5ft across exposed breaks.

Moderate sized S’ly groundswell building Saturday to 4-5ft+, easing from a similar size Sunday.

Inconsistent, long-range but mod-large sized SW groundswell for Wednesday, reaching 6ft+ across exposed breaks, easing Thursday.

Fresh N/NW-NW winds into the weekend (strong Sunday), easing slowly next week and variable from Thursday.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Small to moderate sized S/SW swell today to 4ft across the southern atolls, smaller elsewhere, easing slowly tomorrow.

Small S/SE trade-swell for the weekend to 2-3ft, building more early next week and reaching 3ft to occasionally 4ft Monday afternoon and Tuesday, easing slowly from then.

Mod-large S/SW groundswell building Monday afternoon, peaking Tuesday to 5-6ft across the southern atolls, easing slowly next week. 

Fresh W/NW-W winds tomorrow, easing slowly over the weekend and then light to moderate W/SW through next week. Winds might tend a little SW Wednesday.