Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 6th February)

This week through next (Feb 7 - 14)

Yesterday’s solid westerly swell is slowly easing across the region as Tropical Cyclone Taliah (the source) moves slowly west, away from us while weakening.

A persistent fetch of W’ly winds will continue to generate plenty of energy through the coming days though, easing into Sunday before local strengthening W’ly winds kick up the size again through Monday/Tuesday.

Otherwise, we look out for the long-range SW groundswell and mid-period S/SW energy due later today, peaking overnight and easing tomorrow.

There’s been no change to the expected size, with an easing trend due into tomorrow afternoon, further Saturday.

Later in the day Saturday but more so Sunday our moderate sized pulse of acute S’ly groundswell is due.

This was generated by a strong but late forming low to the south-west of Western Australia, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W’ly winds picked up by satellite.

The late formation and unfavourably aimed fetch will limit the size but we should still see a noticeable increase in size Sunday, easing Monday.

Otherwise there’s nothing of any note for the rest of the week with background levels of mid-period SW swell from tropical activity in then Indian Ocean and a small, long-range SW for due next Friday.

In the Mentawais, easing levels of W’ly swell will pick up again from the SW through next week thanks to strengthening W’ly winds forming south-west of us as Tropical Cyclone Taliah intensifies and remains slow moving.

Variable winds will create favourable conditions with the moderate sized, mid-period energy. 

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Maldives:

Easing levels of S’ly groundswell should be replaced by building levels of inconsistent SE later today but more so tomorrow, produced off the south-west flank of Tropical Cyclone Vince.

This swell looks to persist through the weekend, but come later Sunday though more so next week, slightly stronger levels of SE groundswell are due from the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Taliah.

With Taliah being slow moving, an initial pulse for Monday should be followed up by stronger levels of S/SE groundswell mid-late week, fading off into next weekend.

Eastern Indonesia:

Easing mid-period W/SW-SW swell over the coming days, building again early next week, with some mid-period SW swell in the mix. 

Moderate to large sized mix of SW groundswell and mid-period S/SW swell building to 6ft later today, easing from 6ft+ tomorrow morning, smaller Saturday.

Moderate sized, short-lived spike of S/SW groundswell late Saturday but more so Sunday morning to 4-5ft+, easing thereafter.

Small, inconsistent SW groundswell for next Friday to 4ft+.

Light, variable locally offshore winds, tending W/SW-SW tomorrow afternoon. Winds strengthening from the W/NW-W/SW on the weekend, easing from mid-next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Easing W’ly swell tomorrow and into the weekend. Swell picking up mid-late next week to 3-5ft across northern locations, bigger to the south.

Moderate to large sized S/SW groundswell building to 6ft+ this afternoon, easing tomorrow.

Small, inconsistent SW groundswell for next Friday to 3-5ft.

Variable winds, tending W/NW-NW across far southern locations over the coming days, variable next week and then S/SE-SE from Thursday.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Mid-period SE swell building later today, peaking tomorrow to 4ft+, easing slowly Saturday.

Less consistent SE groundswell for later Sunday but more so Monday to an inconsistent 4ft

Swell easing a touch Tuesday ahead of a stronger S/SE groundswell Wednesday onwards to 4-5ft.

Weak E/NE winds across northern and central locations tomorrow, variable to the south, fresher NE across northern and central locations Saturday, weaker N/NW to the south.

Stronger E/NE-NE winds across northern and central locations from Sunday through Monday, easing Tuesday with more variable N’th winds to the south.