Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 18th June)

This week through next (Jun 19 - 28)

Our large, mid-period swell filled in yesterday and has held well into this morning with a slow easing trend now due over the coming days.

We should see a new, large sized S/SW groundswell arriving into Friday afternoon and evening, peaking overnight and then easing fairly steadily through the weekend.

The source was a strong polar low that’s been projecting up towards Western Australia, with fetches of gales moving up through our southern swell window.

Following this the next swell looks to arrive again from the S/SW, generated by a small mid-latitude low firing up to the south-west of Western Australia. It only looks moderate + in size, kicking later Monday and peaking Tuesday.

Longer term the outlook is a little uncertain but it looks like some larger mid-period swells are due from later next week, into the following weekend.

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Over in the Maldives the S’ly swells are due to start drying up a little over the coming period, but the SE-S/SE trade-swell will muscle up through the weekend and become large next week.

This is thanks to a current fetch of distant E/SE-SE trades dissolving as a new high pressure ridge fills into the Indian Ocean as instability squeezes its northern flank.

This will generate a broad, strengthening fetch of E/SE winds to the east of Madagascar, with further intensifications next week likely to push the surf into the large size range.

More on this Thursday.

Eastern Indonesia:

Large mid-period swell easing slowly over the coming days.

Large, S/SW groundswell filling in Friday, peaking later to 6ft+, easing from the 6ft range Saturday morning.

Moderate + sized mid-period S/SW swell for later Monday, peaking Tuesday to 4-6ft, easing.

Larger mid-period swell energy likely late week onwards.

Moderate to fresh E/SE-SE trades, lighter and more variable each morning. Stronger trades Sunday/Monday.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Large mid-period swell easing slowly over the coming days.

Moderate + sized S/SW groundswell for later Friday to 5-6ft, easing from 4-6ft Saturday morning.

Small sized mid-period S/SW swell for later Monday, peaking Tuesday to 3-5ft.

Larger mid-period swell energy likely late next week.

Variable winds, tending S/SE-SE across southern locations tomorrow. Strengthening S/SE-SE winds across southern locations from the weekend, persisting most of next week but moderate to fresh.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing S/SE swell tomorrow, with a reinforcing pulse of mid-period SE swell for Thursday.

Surf in the 3-4ft range tomorrow, building back to 4-5ft Thursday, holding Friday.

Building levels of S/SE-SE trade-swell through the weekend, becoming larger next week and reaching 6ft+ across the magnets.

Moderate to fresh W/SW-SW winds, strong at times with passing instability. Weaker winds likely next week.