Indonesia/Maldives forecast February 1

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Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 1st February)

This week through next (Feb 2 - 9)

Small levels of fun mid-period S/SW swell should be breaking across the magnets today, with the swell due to hold through tomorrow and the weekend ahead of one final pulse Monday.

Each pulse, generated by active but not overly significant frontal activity to the south-west and west-southwest of Western Australia with inconsistent surf to 4ft+ due on the magnets, easing back in size from Tuesday next week.

One final pulse of acute S’ly swell from a burst of weak S/SE winds off Western Australia is due Wednesday but not topping 3ft to possibly 4ft from Bali to the west.

Conditions look favourable over the coming days with morning W/NW-NW winds, freshening a little into early next week from the W/NW in the mornings, stronger W/SW into the afternoons.

Beyond this there’s nothing of note so make the most of the coming swells.

Across to the Maldives, and easing levels of S’ly swell will continue into tomorrow ahead of the fresh mid-period S’ly pulse due into later Saturday, peaking Sunday. This was generated by a frontal system to the north of the Heard Island region, with small-moderate sized but inconsistent sets due across the southern atolls.

Following this, easing surf is due in the region with no major surf due. Some small, background S’ly energy is due later next week but only to 3ft or so.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small, inconsistent mid-period S/SW swells from Thursday through early/mid next week to 4ft+ on the magnets (3-4ft next Wednesday and from Bali to the west).

Easing swell from Wednesday next week.

Weak W/NW-NW tending fresh W/SW winds this period, gustier W/NW Monday and Tuesday mornings with stronger afternoon, W/SW winds.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small background levels of S/SW-SW swell for tomorrow afternoon through next Tuesday to 3ft+ across the exposed breaks. Stronger 4ft surf on Monday.

Variable winds, tending S/SW into tomorrow afternoon, and NW Sunday afternoon, persisting Monday/Tuesday from the NW.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs


Easing S’ly groundswell tomorrow and Saturday.

Small-moderate sized S’ly swell building late Saturday, peaking Sunday to 3-4ft on the southern atolls.

Smaller next week, with a small background S/SW swell late week to 3ft on the southern atolls.

Moderate N/NE winds tomorrow and Saturday, freshening from the E/NE Sunday, persisting into early next week. Weaker N/NE winds from mid-next week.


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Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 1 Feb 2024 at 2:39pm

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