Indonesia/Maldives forecast November 28

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Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 28th November)

This week through next week (Nov 29 – Dec 8)

Small surf that's currently breaking across the region will give way to some small pulses of mid-period SW swell later week but more so on the weekend, with finally some better SW swell for mid-next week.

The swells for later Thursday but more so Friday and Saturday have been generated by distant, not overly significant fetches through Indonesia's far swell window late last week and on the weekend.

Without wind reaching gale-force, no significant size is due, with small, slow sets due across the exposed breaks Friday but more so Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, before easing into Monday.

Of greater significance is a slow moving mid-latitude low that's currently formed to the south-east of South Africa and will move east over the coning days, generating strong to sub-gale-force W/SW winds.

With the slow moving nature of the low which will reach Western Australia on Sunday, a good sized, consistent SW swell due to build Tuesday, hold Wednesday and then ease slowly Thursday.

This swell should be similar in size across the Mentawais while the Maldives should also receive moderate sized S'ly swell for early next week.

Looking in more detail across the Maldives and our good S/SE swell should be slowly easing today and will back off further into the end of the week.

There's no major south-east trade-swell due above 2ft, while background S'ly groundswell energy should boost southern locations Friday, easing Saturday,

The slow moving low (discussed above) is due to generate a more significant, moderate sized S'ly swell early next week, peaking Monday before easing Tuesday. Unfortunately there's no renewal in trade-swell due from the south-east thanks to benign winds in the Indian Ocean.

It looks like we'll see a stronger S'ly groundswell Tuesday/Wednesday generated by a stronger, tighter mid-latitude low forming south of Madagascar behind the broader system ahead of it. More on this next update.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small, inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell building late Thursday, peaking Friday to 3ft across exposed breaks, with a similar sized pulse for Saturday to 3-4ft.

Slightly better, inconsistent SW groundswell for Sunday to 4ft across exposed breaks, easing Monday.

Moderate-large mid-period SW swell building Tuesday, reaching 6ft later across exposed breaks, holding Wednesday, easing Thursday.

Light, variable winds most of the period, tending S/SE-SE through the afternoons.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, inconsistent SW swell for Friday to 3ft, with a secondary pulse Saturday to an inconsistent 3ft+ sets across exposed breaks. Secondary pulse of swell later Saturday and Sunday morning to 3-4ft.

Moderate-large mid-period SW swell for Tuesday, reaching 6ft across exposed breaks, easing slowly Wednesday and further Thursday.

Light, variable winds, tending S/SE-SE across southern locations through this week and next.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs


Easing S/SE swell today from 4-5ft across the southern atolls. Slightly smaller Male.

Small-moderate sized, background S'ly groundswell for Friday to 3-4ft across the southern atolls, easing on the weekend.

Moderate + sized S'ly groundswell for later Sunday, peaking Monday to 4ft across the southern atolls, easing Tuesday.

Possible bigger S'ly groundswell for later Tuesday/Wednesday to 4-6ft across the southern atolls.

Light-moderate E/NE-NE winds across northern and central locations tomorrow, light W/SW to the south.

Variable winds across northern and central locations later week and through the weekend, W/SW-SW across southern locations.


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Craig Tuesday, 28 Nov 2023 at 3:49pm

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