XL surf on the way this weekend with more winter-calibre surf behind it

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Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Steve Shearer (issued on Jan 3)

This week and next (Jan3 – Jan14)

Hawaii: Meaty combo swells this week with XL surf this weekend and more L to XL surf behind it.

Easing swells Tues are supplanted by new W/NW swell filling in later in the a’noon and building through Wed with size tracking upwards through the day into the 6ft range.

Winds Wed are a bit funky but improve Thurs as upstream trades settle into the more E’ly pattern. Just in time for a more solid pulse of W/NW to NW swell generated by one of the storms we identified last f/cast pushing off from Japan and tracking towards Hawaii.

This swell should get into the 10ft+ range and will have long period N swell crossed through it from a storm that generated a long fetch protruding from the Alaskan Peninsula. That will see excellent surf at some exposed reefs while others will be more tricky with the combo swells. 

Swell from this source slowly drops from high levels on Fri back to the 6-8ft range with a more light and variable flow across the Hawaiian chain as trades are disrupted by approaching storms.

The drop in size is short-lived as an XL swell event builds in for the weekend 8/9 Jan. This swell will be generated by one of the powerful storms forming off Japan as part of the huge cyclonic gyre covering the North Pacific. 

This storm intensifies through Tues, with seas in excess of 30ft tracking towards Hawaii as it crosses the dateline as a severe gale force low (see below). Proximity =size and with the head of the fetch well within a thousand NM of Hawaii Sat should see a rise into the 15ft range through the a’noon.

Winds look funky with the proximity of the storm too the Islands.

Sun sees the full brunt of the swell with XL breakers in the 20-25ft range in a period band suited for Waimea Bay. Winds should tend light NE as trades attempt to re-establish.

Into the medium term and another powerful storm tracking behind the XL system  reaches storm force status as it reaches the dateline on the weekend and early next week. Models are in good agreement this storm will produce another Large swell from the NW, slightly below the weekends event, in the 15ft range. Winds remain tricky to call as the proximity to the storm track suggests periods of W’ly quadrant winds during mid next week.

Check Wed for a fresh update.