Craig

Large swells ahead of XXL swell Monday

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Hawaii North Shore forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 31st December)

Best Days: Thursday morning, Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning experienced surfers, Monday watching from the safety of the shore

This week and next week (Jan 1 - 8)

The surf's bottoming out today with poor winds, but from tomorrow we'll see an extended run of large to XXL surf.

The timing of the pulses from tomorrow through Sunday have shifted a little, but in effect we'll see the surf ebbing and pulsing around the 10ft+ range, bigger into the weekend.

An initial strong frontal system pushing towards us the last couple of days has generated a large NW groundswell for tomorrow, with the North Shore due to come in around 10ft+ as it peaks.

Currently a flurry of secondary frontal activity is aiming fetches of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds towards us, with a final burst of severe-gale NW winds projecting ideally down towards Hawaii from a more northerly direction.

We should see another strong pulse of NW groundswell Friday, building from 8-10ft through the morning to 10-12ft on dark, easing back a touch from a similar size Saturday morning. The final N/NW groundswell pulse is due to peak Sunday morning to 12ft+, easing slightly later in the day.

Winds should be good tomorrow morning with light E/NE trades, deteriorating and swinging more N/NE through the day and persisting from the N/NE into Friday.

Saturday looks to start dicey with fresh to strong NE winds, improving and tending more E/NE through the day and persisting Sunday morning.

Now, heading into Monday the largest swell of the season so far is expected to push into the North Shore.

As touched on in Tuesday's forecast, a 'bombing low' is forecast to develop south of the Kamchatka Peninsula and push east across the North Pacific, maintaining strength while moving to a line north-northwest of Hawaii before slowly weakening while approaching the United States.

A bombing low is a weather system which drops over 24hPa in less than 24 hours and with this, we'll see a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds aimed through Hawaii's swell window for 24 hours, producing an XXL swell event for Monday.

The swell is due to arrive not far behind the long-period fore-runners early Monday, jumping to a very dangerous 20-25ft across the North Shore during the morning with bigger 30ft+ waves at deep water offshore reefs. A peak is expected through the middle of the day.

Winds are looking to be a bit of a problem with strengthen E/NE trades, persisting Tuesday as the swell drops steadily.

Longer term we're likely to see a secondary XL swell for the following weekend, but more on this Tuesday.

North Shore Forecast Graph
North Shore WAMs

Comments

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Thursday, 31 Dec 2015 at 5:52pm

Its on again for big wave surfers . Swellnets forecast says its goes 0.5ft to 25ft within 6 hrs
Thats crazy or a mistake ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 9:59am

Yeah that was a model error.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 11:42am

Ok craig thanks . Looks good still

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 5 Jan 2016 at 4:15pm

Solid Peahi today, even though swell was downgraded slightly since Thursday's update.

 

January 4th 2016 , #peahi , @ian.walsh charging !! #Hawaii #surfsup #jaws #xxl #nikon @redbullaloha @redbull_surfing

A photo posted by Tassio Silva (@surfsup_photos) on

barley's picture
barley's picture
barley commented Tuesday, 5 Jan 2016 at 4:24pm

Whaddya mean solid ya clown? that's fuckn huge!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 5 Jan 2016 at 4:25pm

Haha, was going to actually edit 'solid' out but left it. Yep huge!

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Tuesday, 5 Jan 2016 at 4:40pm

Xxl ! More ! Charging ! Eddie ?

barley's picture
barley's picture
barley commented Tuesday, 5 Jan 2016 at 4:40pm

any word on the 'Eddie'? Craig-os

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 5 Jan 2016 at 4:42pm

Only that it was a good clean 15-18ft or so. No Eddie run.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 5 Jan 2016 at 4:42pm

The 'bombing low' formed a little later in the swell window for Oahu (North Shore) so more north in swell and better and bigger for Maui (Peahi).

tonybarber's picture
tonybarber's picture
tonybarber commented Wednesday, 6 Jan 2016 at 7:03am

At Waimea, yep you right about 18foot with a few larger. Crowded. Eddie not on.
Nice and clean.
Pipe is messed out. Week is promising, not sure about the winds.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 6 Jan 2016 at 8:58am

Thanks Tony!

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 commented Wednesday, 6 Jan 2016 at 2:14pm