Good period ahead, largest over the weekend

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 26th November)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period (experienced surfers only Saturday/Sunday and Wednesday/Thursday)

This week and next (Nov 27 – Dec 4)

There's been no change to the inconsistent long-period NW groundswell due tomorrow, with the forerunners expected to arrive later today and then peak through the day to 4-5ft+ across swell magnets. A secondary reinforcing pulse for Friday will likely be around the same size now, before fading back into Saturday morning.

Strong E/NE trades will develop tomorrow before easing back a touch Friday.

The weekend's large pulse of NW tending N/NW groundswell is currently being generated by a vigorous low south-east of the Kamchatka Peninsula with satellite observations observing core winds in the 50-55kt range.

This low will continue tracking east more into our northern swell window over the next day or so while generating severe-gale to storm-force winds.

A large NW tending N/NW groundswell will result, with the long-period forerunners arriving early Saturday ahead of a large and powerful kick in size Saturday afternoon, reaching an easy 10ft by dark. A peak is due early Sunday morning, with 10-12ft sets due at dawn, easing back steadily through the day and further down from 6ft to possibly 8ft early Monday.

Strong E/NE trades will continue through the weekend, before slackening off gradually during next week.

Our second low forming off Japan is now forecast to be quite weak, patchy and unconsolidated, with only a moderate to large sized increase due through Wednesday afternoon, dropping back from a slightly more northerly direction Thursday.

The North Shore should see exposed spots building to 8ft+ during the afternoon/evening, then backing off from a similar size range Thursday morning, further down into the end of the week.

Longer term indications are for another large and possibly XXL swell to form later next week for the following weekend, but we'll have another look at this on Tuesday.

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