Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Aug 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Long period S swell wrap Fri, increasing a notch Sat, easing Sun
• Good quality E/NE groundswell  next week from intense low in Tasman, building Mon PM, peaking Tues/Wed
• N’ly winds Mon, tending NW-W/NW Tues and NW-W/SW Wed
• Slow easing in quality E/NE swell Thurs/Fri with light winds

Recap

A small blend of S and E swells has held 2ft surf through yesterday and now persisting into today with light offshore breezes tending to light S-S/SE winds through the day.

This weekend and next week (Aug1- Aug8)

An extended swell event  is ahead as a complex low forms off the NENSW/SEQLD coast, backed by a strong high in the bight which moves SE of Tasmania over the weekend. By dawn Sat a low will be spinning up, likely just north-east of Coffs, with a secondary centre in the Coral Sea. By late morning into the afternoon, near gales to gales form off the Southern flank of the NSW low. It’ll take some time for swells to reach NETas so we’re expecting small surf Sat with long period S swell wrap to 2-3ft and light winds.

Similar Sun but with winds tending N-NE and freshening through the a’noon. S swell ease back to 1-2ft through the morning.

O’night Sat into Sun the Coral Sea low will merge with the NSW low forming a deep and powerful low pressure system in the Northern Tasman. The merged low centre then rotates around the edge of the gyre, back SW then NW then NE, getting close to the North Coast and bringing S’ly gales to the North Coast and Gold Coast. 

E’ly severe gales to potential storm force winds develop about the southern flank of the new super low along with the S’ly gales on the western flank. Both those fetches will generate large and powerful surf in the Tasman with E’ly gales favouring NETas for swell generation.

Those E’ly gales in a broad fetch remain into the new week with a massive high new New Zealand (1042hPa) acting as supporting cradle for the Tasman low which will be drifting eastwards to a slot north of the North Island. If anything that eastwards movement looks slower than modelled on Wed so large surf will persist at elevated levels for longer. 

We’ll see surf build through Mon into the 5-6ft range from 1-2ft in the morning under mod N tending N/NE winds.

Size then holds through Tues and Wed in the 6ft range with winds shifting NW-W/NW Tues and NW to W/SW Wed.

We’ll see a slow ramp down in size through Thurs and into next weekend with light winds expected as high pressure moves over Tas.

Plenty of great waves to be had. 

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!