Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another round of large NE windswell Sat easing Sun with fresh N’lies tending NW Sun
• More fun E/NE swell early next week
• Small S swell Tues
• Small, fun levels of E/NE swell persist next week
• Possible E swell if low forms in Tasman off NSW coast, low confidence in specifics, check back Mon for updates

Recap

Easing E/NE swells offered surf to 2-3ft yesterday under light offshore  winds. Back down into the 2ft range today.  With early W-NW winds now tending N’ly and freshening.

This weekend and next week (Jul 26- Aug1)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure has drifted up over NENSW and  into the Tasman and an approaching trough and cut-off low really ramps up the pressure gradient short term, leading to fresh/strong N/NE-N’ly winds off the coast. Inshore we’ll see those winds between 20-30 kts through the morning with tendency to veer more NW through the a’noon, at decreasing velocity. 

NE windswell from this source is still expected to offer surf in the 6ft range with the occ. bigger 8ft set. There should be a sweet spot as winds shift more NW and clean up spots with just a touch of wind protection. Small background E-E/NE swells from winds feeding into the retreating trough will hold some 1-2ft sets through the day. 

Winds shift W/NW-NW overnight and into the morning, veering NW and easing o/night and into Sun. Low pressure does drift over the Island o/night so we may see some period of light/variable wind in the morning. NE windswell will be on the way down but there should be some tasty surf in the 4-5ft range early, easing through the day.

The cut-off low which moves SE over Tasmania late on the weekend and drifts SE of the island state through Mon, holding a W’ly flow Mon. 

Small E’ly swells offer a 2 occ. 3ft wave Mon and into Tues as a retreating E’ly fetch continues to deliver a small payload of surf.

The low near Tasmania does have a weak front attached early next week capable of a small flush of S swell likely Tues easing into Wed and offering 2-3ft surf at S swell magnets.

From mid next week things still look interesting but models have been all over the place trying to resolve it so expect major revisions when we come back Mon. 

Low pressure formation looks likely, possibly a strong cut-off low moving into the Tasman Thurs and offering E’ly swells Thurs and SE swell into the weekend if the low hangs around in the south-east Tasman near the South Island. 

There is also the chance the low is weak and gets whisked away quickly with only a brief, small flush of S swell later next week. 

EC is also suggesting , after this weak low gets whisked away we see low pressure formation off the sub-tropical coast of SEQLD or NENSW with potential for SE-E/SE swells there into the first week of Aug. 

Again, poor model to model and run to run consistency leads to low confidence. 

We’ll keep eyes on it and see how it looks Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!