Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, inconsistent E/SE groundswell peaking  Sat with strong N/NW winds
• N windswell building Tues AM, peaking Tues PM with N tending NW winds
• Clean easing NE windswell Wed
• Small NE windswell persists through next week
• Possible large stormy swell next weekend if low forms near Tasmania- low confidence, check back Mon for updates

Recap

Tiny surf from the E/NE yesterday with equally small surf persisting into today. 

This weekend and next week (Jul 18 - 27)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Zonal fronts are sweeping across the state bringing fresh and gusty NW winds tomorrow, tending more 

W/NW to W’ly on Sunday.

Small N’ly windswell from gales in Bass Strait tomorrow with some minor SE groundswell from a low under the South Island offers up some 2ft sets with the very occ. 3footer. 

By Sun that swell source will have died out and it’s back to tiny/flat surf, extending through Mon.

We’ll still see building NE windswell but pushed back into Tues with size building from 3ft to 4-5ft though the day under fresh N’ly winds.

Source of NE windswell Tues

Wed looks good with easing NE windswell from 4ft but clean under NW winds.

The rest of the week should hold surfable levels of E/NE-NE swell from winds feeding into a low pressure trough in the Tasman. 

Nothing exceptional but size should stay in the 2ft range at a minimum.

Into next weekend and EC is suggesting a major low pressure centre tracking into Bass Strait and then into the Tasman with a possibility of a large to X-L stormy E swell for Tasmania depending on where the low is located. 

GFS holds the troughy pattern in the Tasman with possibility of more E/NE-E swell from infeeds into troughs or lows.

Definitely looks like an active period ahead either way so check back Mon and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Until then, have a great weekend!