Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, inconsistent E/SE groundswell showing Fri a’noon, peaking  Sat with strong N/NW winds
• N windswell building Mon, peaking Tues with N tending NW winds
• Small NE windswell Larter next week

Recap

The S'ly swell held 2-3ft on the south magnets yesterday with today seeing the energy drop away, with small to tiny leftovers on the coast.

This week and weekend (Jul 16 - 20)

All the action is under the continent at the moment with strong frontal activity generating plenty of swell for the southern states, with not much getting into NETas. The Tasman Sea is under the sway of weak pressure gradients as a decaying high pressure system sits off the NSW coast and a trough moves offshore from the Far South Coast. 

A zonal front brings an increase in NW tending W’ly winds tomorrow with minor N’ly windswell wrap from the NW gales to 1-2ft. 

Tiny into tomorrow before a small kick in E/SE swell Fri from the low SE of the South Island which is currently on the edge of the swell window. We should see a few 2ft sets show Fri a’noon before slightly stronger 2-3ft surf shows Sat, easing Sun.

Winds on Fri will be moderate from the W/NW, freshening on Sat and tending more NW’ly or even N/NW’ly before easing Sun and veering back W/NW’ly. 

Into next week and high pressure moves into the Tasman and starts to build a NE flow along the Southern NSW coast extending down to Tasmania through Mon, freshening Tues. 

Source of NE windswell early next week

That should see building NE windswell later Mon, up into the 2ft range, peaking Tues in the 3-4ft range. 

Surf then eases through the rest of the week with only small NE swells expected. 

We’ll see how it looks on Fri.