Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed17th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell spike expected Tues next week, easing through Wed
• Small S swell pulses expected late next week into the weekend
• Small, fun E/NE swell Sat/Sun with offshore winds
• More  S swell pulses next week, biggest Mon/Tues with offshore winds

Recap

A front pushing up past the state behind a trough generated a spike in S swell to 3-4ft at S facing beaches yesterday with W’ly winds shifting SW-S during the day as the front passed through. Today has eased with surf to 2ft at S facing beaches, tiny elsewhere and light winds tending variable.

This week and next week (May17– May 26)

A small low formed off a coastal trough close to the QLD/NSW border yesterday and is now drifting close to Lord Howe Island, continuing to move SE-E/SE towards New Zealand. A tight pressure gradient between the low and a dual-centred high moving through the Bight is creating low end gales and strong winds on the SW flank of the low and generating S’ly swells up the Eastern seaboard, favouring NSW for most size. The low lingers in the Tasman this week sending some small E/NE swell to NETas before more S swell pulses next week.

In the short run small S-SSE swell pulses to 1-2ft continue through Thur and into Fri from frontal activity and radial spread from the Tasman low. Conditions should be groomed under a W’ly flow generated by a weak front. Those winds will tend more SW through Fri.

Into the weekend and the semi-stationary low sends some E/NE’ly swell towards NETas from winds on the NE quarter (see below). Models are suggesting tiny surf but the fetch suggests some 2-3ft sets through Sat, easing into Sun, albeit inconsistent. 

W’ly winds Sat should tend more W/SW-SW Sun as a front pushes up into the Tasman.

This front will generate some substantial S swell for Mon with fresh W’ly winds, tending NW during the day. Expect size to push up into the 4ft range at S facing beaches during the day, with a slow easing in size for Tues expected under W’ly winds.

Further ahead and more small S pulses are expected later next week, as more fronts traverse the lower Tasman, at thus stage they look smaller than Mon/Tues’s peak in size.

We also may see some small NE windswell from intense pre-frontal N’ly winds off the South Coast Thurs/Fri. 

We’ll see how those are shaping up when we come back Fri.

Seeya then.