Active period ahead as chunky E/NE swell arrives Sun

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Fun NE windswell Wed PM, Thurs, easing Fri
  • Better quality E/NE swell on the weekend, holding Mon and possibly increasing further Tues 
  • S swell expected Tues/Wed with more S swell into the first week of June


More small S to SE swells in the 1-2ft range, easing back today with light winds now tending N to NE as high pressure moves into the Tasman Sea.

This week and next (May 25 - June3)

Synoptic pattern still has a ground-hog day feel to it, with a large, slow moving high inching it’s way across the Tasman and a coastal trough lying parallel to almost the entire East Coast. A series of powerful fronts and complex low pressure systems riding up the long wave trough in New Zealand longitudes are now reaching their final stages, with a little more SSE groundswell to come in. Attention will still be focused on the tropics/sub-tropics as a surface low forms at the northern end of the trough off the CQ coast through Thurs/Fri and tracks southwards into the weekend, bringing another round of E/NE swell. 

In the short run and NE windswell builds through Thurs into the  3ft range with the fetch looking a little stronger than it did on Mon. Expect mod/fresh N’ly winds through the day.

NE swell holds in the 2-3ft range through Fri morning before easing during the day with winds from the NW before a W change and possible late S’ly wind as a trough pushes through.

Into the weekend and light winds Sat provide good conditions with surf small- around 1-2ft of NE windswell.

Sunday should see much better quality E/NE swell as the low pushing down from the tropics drags a fetch of E/NE winds into the Tasmanian swell window. Offshore W’ly winds all day will groom E/NE swell pushing up into the 3ft+ range during the day with some excellent quality waves on offer.

That swell holds into Mon in the 3ft+ range with light winds, tending more SSW to S in the a’noon as a front pushes through.

E/NE-E swell persists into Tues, as the fetch migrates all the way down the inside of the North Island. It’s likely we’ll see an increase Tues, up into the 3-5ft range, but winds will tend fresher SSW during the day, so you’ll need some wind protection.

Strong fronts and a cold outbreak are likely to see S swells build on Wed, although models are still not fixed on how this will play out so we’ll need to revisit it on Fri.

Into the medium term and more S swells are on the radar for the first week of June.

Check back Fri for the latest update.