Mixed bag continues as cold fronts bring in seasonal change

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed March 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small S swell pulses Fri and over the weekend
  • NE swell increasing Sun PM, peaking Mon and slowly easing Tues
  • Strong S swell likely Thurs next week, stay tuned for updates


Small surf filled in from the E yesterday with 1-2ft surf early tending to 2ft sets through the a’noon. This morning saw bigger 2-3ft sets, clean with SW winds, before an easing trend set in.

This week and next week (Mar 23 - Apr 1)

A Tasman low which produced a few days of surf now dissipated near New Zealand.  A large area of high pressure is being displaced by a trough which is expected to linger about the North Coast of NSW through the end of the week. The trough is connected to a parent low and cold fronts pushing through the lower Tasman, expected to generate some small pulses of long period S swell for NE Tas over the coming days.

Tiny surf is expected through Thurs with the first pulse of longer period S swell seeing a few 2ft sets Friday a’noon at S facing beaches. Light variable winds should make hunting a wave worthwhile.

Small S swell pulses continue over the weekend. First up, a high pressure sitting just to the east of Tasmania should bring settled weather and light N to NE winds. Swell pulses Fri, Sat and Sun should be roughly ascending in size, from 1-2ft Fri, 2ft Sat and 2-3ft Sun. You’ll need a S facing beach to access this swell due to the straight S’ly direction.

A trough off the Mid North Coast over the weekend is expected to continue to slide down the coast, to be off the South Coast later Sun and into Mon (see below). That aims a fetch of proximate NE-E/NE winds into the ETas swell window. We should see surf build into the 2ft range Sun a’noon, building further from 3ft into the 3-4ft range during Mon and slowly declining through Tues.

Winds should be light N’ly Sun before tending S’ly on Mon as a trough and front pushes past the state.

These winds are likely to tend SE on Tues as a trough and low form to the NE of Tasmania.

Longer term and this system is reinforced by a much stronger front Thurs, with a large high behind it in the Bight. Expect a stiff S’ly Thurs with a fast rising S swell pushing up into the 5-6ft range.

This should back down a notch Fri as the front moves northwards.

Conditions and swell should settle by next weekend (1st weekend of April) as the large high moves over the Island.

Check back Fri for a fresh update.