Few small pulses of swell as cold fronts start to sweep the state

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Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon March 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Fun E swell Tues, peaking Wed with offshore winds
  • Small S swell pulses Fri into the weekend
  • Not much on offer next week, stray S swell pulses likely, check back for updates on timing


Small surf from the S to SE over the weekend with 1-2ft waves Sat, easing to 1ft Sun. Light SE winds eased back to variable on Sunday creating a better day for diving than surfing. Today has seen size hold in the 1-2ft range with light SE winds now tending N/NE and freshening.

This weekend and next week (Mar 21 - Apr 1)

The current low in the Tasman has been slow moving over the last 36hrs, and in conjunction with a 1027 hPa high which is sliding SE below New Zealand, has maintained a reasonable fetch of S/SE winds through the Central and Eastern Tasman.  

E’ly winds on the southern flank of the low don’t look as impressive now as they did Friday but we’re still expecting to see a useful E’ly swell build later Tuesday into the 2ft range with NW to W winds in the wake of a trough.

Wednesday morning still looks by far the best bet of the f/cast period with 3ft of E swell from the low and a front pushing W’ly winds across Tasmania creating offshore conditions on the East Coast. That swell will ease quite quickly through the day so get on the early and bring rubber.

The rest of the week is tiny with Thurs close to flat and only tiny levels of S swell expected Fri.

Looking to this weekend and small amounts of S swell are expected to kick surf up to rideable levels Sat with a passing front generating surf in the 2-3ft range.

This drops back to tiny levels Sun with NE winds developing and a chance of a NE windswell in the a’noon, though at minor levels.

Next week and models are struggling to resolve the troughy pattern with GFS suggesting a broad area of low pressure off the Mid North Coast, with a thin fetch of SSE winds not particularly well aimed at Tasmania. This model then suggests a strong front through the lower Tasman with a favourable NE slingshot- suggesting a moderate S swell later Wed week.

EC model maintains a NE flow along the coast during early-mid next week, possibly generating useful NE windswell Tues/Wed next week. They have a much weaker front pushing into the Tasman Wed, with a small S swell on the radar.

Neither of these possibilities is too froth-worthy, so we’ll flag them for now and see how they are shaping up on Wed.

Check back then for the latest f/cast notes.