Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 2nd February)

Best Days: Protected spots tomorrow and Friday morning, Saturday morning semi-protected spots

Recap

• Inconsistent easing E/NE swell tomorrow, further Fri with gusty S/SW-SW tending strong S/SE-SE winds tomorrow, mod-fresh S/SW-SW tending S/SE Fri
• Small mid-period S swell tomorrow, with a stronger S/SE groundswell building Fri PM, easing Sat with S/SW tending SE winds
• Small mix of swells Sun with SE winds
• Building E'ly swell early-mid next week with E winds

This week and weekend (Feb 1 - 6)

Expect the swell from the tropical low in the Tasman Sea earlier in the week to peak this afternoon to an inconsistent but strong 4-5ft on the swell magnets

Looking at how this swell performed after its peak in New South Wales, a pronounced and quicker than expected drop was seen so I'd expect similar across the Tasmanian coast tomorrow.

Easing sets from an inconsistent 3-4ft across the swell magnets, dropping further from 2ft to occasionally 3ft Friday morning. Interestingly the automated model is showing increasing size tomorrow but disregard this.

Winds will favour southern corners with a gusty S/SW-SW tending stronger S-S/SE wind tomorrow, moderate to fresh S/SW-SW tending S/SE wind on Friday.

These southerly winds will be associated with a trough and low that's formed south-southeast of us, aiming a fetch of strong to gale-force S-S/SE winds in our southern swell window.

The low looks to retract a little quicker to the south-east than forecast on Monday but we should still see some fun S/SE swell generated from it.

A weak, small S'ly swell due today should hold tomorrow to 2-3ft on the south swell magnets ahead of a better pulse of S/SE groundswell Friday, building to 3-5ft on the south magnets later in the day but with those poor winds.

Easing 3-4ft sets are due Saturday but with S/SW tending SE winds, limiting surfing options.

Moving into next week we've got a dynamic outlook as trough deepening in the Tasman Sea squeezes a high sliding in from the west. This will generate a strong, broad fetch of SE winds extending off New Zealand' North Island aimed away from us.

As the slide slides in further from the east the trough looks to migrate to the west early-mid next week, projecting a fetch of strong E/SE winds more favourably through our swell window.

With this though winds will onshore as the trough continues to slide east into us, so we'll see building E'ly swell energy but with poor conditions. More on this next update.