Long period pulsey swell from Ex TC Cody incoming early next week

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan14)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

  • Chunky E  to E/NE windswell holding Sat AM before easing with winds improving
  •  NE leftovers Sun with variable winds
  • Inconsistent, pulsey E/NE swell from TC Cody Mon/Tues with better winds Mon
  • New S swell Wed with fresh S to SSE winds
  • Small E swell Thurs with onshore winds
  • NE windswell building Fri, peaking Sat, easing Sun with offshore winds
  • S swell possible Mon 24/1, stay tuned for updates


Tiny surf yesterday has built into the 3-4ft range today as a high pressure cell well to the east of the state directs a proximate fetch of E/NE winds straight at the east Coast. Unfortunately, local winds have also been from the same direction. 

This weekend and next week (Jan14-Jan21)

Leftover E/NE swell holds in the 3ft range through tomorrow morning with winds improving as they swing from light N to NW then SW as a trough lies over the north of the state.

That size eases during the day with Sunday seeing leftovers holding in the 3ft range and winds clocking around the compass, starting S’ly then tending E/NE before ending up N/NE. 

Ex TC Cody  has now undergone extra-tropical transition and is classified as a storm force sub-tropical low.(see below)

The low (Ex TC Cody) is drifting slowly south-southeastwards towards the North Island with an extensive swath of storm force (50knot) winds along the south-western flank. These storm forces winds are embedded in an expansive gale force wind field. The slowed movement and enlargement of the wind field as it approaches the North Island are on track to deliver more powerful long period E-E/NE swell, not ideally aimed for Tasmania but with enough strength to deliver some 3-4ft sets through Mon and Tues.

Winds look better Mon with pre-frontal NW to WNW winds supplying premium offshore surface conditions.

A trough brings S to SSE winds Tues, with a chance of some short range S/SE windswell building in the a’noon.

This tends to small levels of S/SE/SE windswell on Wed, in the 2-3ft range but keep expectations low as far as quality goes.

Into the end of next week and a large high drifts into the Tasman Sea, with an E’ly fetch aimed mostly at Southern NSW on Thursday. That should see some small levels of E’ly swell build later Thurs, into the 2ft range.

\Bigger NE windswell is expected Fri as the fetch tilts more N/S, aiming up at Tasmania . Size is expected to build into the 3ft range on Fri.

The fetch then migrates southwards later Fri bringing a much bigger pulse of NE windswell Sat with size expected to build into the 4-5ft range accompanied by fresh N to NNE winds.

A cold front clears out the fetch and brings SW winds Sun, with rapidly easing surf being cleaned up by offshore winds.

Longer term and a cold front and low may bring a steep spike in S swell either Sun or Mon  23/24 of Jan.

Stay tuned for a fresh update Mon and have a great weekend.