Steady drumbeat of E swell this week overlapped by large S swell Sun

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Oct 20)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Slightly stronger ENE swell Thurs, peaks Fri with improving winds
  • ENE swell easing through Sat
  • Strong S swell likely Sun, as low forms East of Tasmania, peaking Mon with strong S'ly winds, easing Mon


E swell has built into the 2-3ft range as a small low formed NE of Tasmania in a trough line. Size has held in the 2-3ft range today with a light onshore ENE to NE’ly flow accompanying the swell. 

This week and weekend (Oct18-Oct 24)

Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a broad fetch of E to ESE’ly winds feeding into the small low east of Tasmania, with another weak low centre off the NSW Mid North Coast also providing a weak E’ly fetch. While windspeeds are on the low side (less than 30 knots) the persistent nature of the low and well aligned fetch should hold surf in the 2-3ft range through Thursday, with a slight bump in size Fri. Onshore NE winds through Thursday are expected to ease a notch during Fri and swing more N’ly during the a’noon.

Swell from this source then fades out Sat, with small leftovers and light offshore winds, before a stiff S’ly change kicks in.

Sunday still sees a surface low form to the East of Tasmania, energising a fetch of S’ly gales adjacent to the Island during Sunday. With proximate gales and a deeper fetch located southwards of the Island surf is likely to build quickly, after an undersized start, with size ramping up quickly into the 4-6ft range during the day. Quality will be affected by fresh to strong S’ly winds inshore, so you may need to sacrifice size to find a rideable wave.

Size is expected to peak during Mon as the low becomes slow moving, with solid 6ft+ surf, and a regime of S'ly winds which may tend more SSE through the day as the low slowly drifts away from the Tasmanian coast. 

This peak in size then rolls off in size through Tuesday as the low weakens and moves slowly away from the coast, with early size in the 4-6ft range, dropping back during the day to the 3-4ft range. S'ly winds remain for Tueday, possibly SW early, before easing during the a'noon.

Size then rolls off further with some small leftovers from the S for Wed with winds tending to light NE breezes during the day.

Longer term and weak pressure gradients suggest small/tiny surf going into next weekend. 

Check back Fri for a full update.




haggis's picture
haggis's picture
haggis Thursday, 21 Oct 2021 at 2:52pm

Anyone doing forecaster notes for Hobart region. Cheers hag