Plenty of surf and wind as low pressure drifts over Tasmania

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep29)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Strong E’ly winds swell Thurs/Fri with onshore winds
  • NE windswell Fri, better quality Sat easing into Sun with better winds
  • Strong ENE pulse Mon with good winds, easing into Tues
  • Small S swell Tues/Wed


Very marginal surf on offer since Monday with only a small, weak signal from the S, providing surf in the 1-2ft range yesterday, declining into the 1ft range today. 


This week and weekend (Sep27-Oct3)

Still on track for some large, windy surf for the NE coast as an approaching low pressure system focusses an infeed of E’ly winds onto the coast and an associated NE fetch in the Tasman, adjacent to the NSW coast sends NE swell towards Tasmania. 

This will see surf building through Thursday into the 4-5ft range, though with fresh E’ly winds it will be hard to find a quality wave. 

Friday sees the low pressure system start to drift across Bass Strait to be East of Tasmania on Saturday. This maintains an onshore flow through Friday from the E, with winds moderating during the a’noon and tending more S/SE. Expect plenty of size through Friday with surf in the 4-6ft range, with quality improving through the day as onshore winds ease and wavelength draws out. 

The weekend continues the regime of surf from the ENE to NE. Light onshore winds continue as the low drifts E, but maintains weak onshore flow adjacent to Tasmania’s  East Coast. Surf on Saturday is expected in the 4ft range, with light onshore winds not affecting wave quality too much.

A slight easing on Sunday is offset by better winds, with a chance of lighter SW to S breezes early before light onshore winds kick in. Expect 3-4ft surf through Sun, easing a notch in the a’noon.

The trough lingers in the Tasman sea, along a NNE/SSW axis and windspeeds are expected to intensify through Sunday through the Tasman sea, with a well aimed fetch generating a stronger pulse of ENE/NE swell for Monday. This should see wave heights build back into the 4-5ft range during the day with more favourable NW to W winds expected. Monday looks fantastic.

A front pushes past the state Tuesday bringing cleaner conditions to easing ENE swell, before a small pulse from the South, seeing surf in the 2-3ft range on Wed, with NW’ly winds expected to build in behind the front.

The rest of the week sees easing surf so try and get in and make the most of the upcoming pulses.

Check back in for a full analysis Fri