Craig

South followed by north-east

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 13th September)

Best Days: Tuesday, Thursday through next Saturday

Recap

Wednesday afternoon's kick in good E'ly swell eased back from a less consistent 2-3ft yesterday morning, with a wait for the best sets. Today is tiny.

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This weekend and next week (Sep 14 - 20)

There's nothing too significant on the cards for the coming days, with a front pushing past us this evening not expected to offer much over 2ft across south swell magnets, easing through the day. A NW tending NE breeze will create great good conditions on the south magnets.

There'll be nothing left into Sunday and Monday will see a slightly better aligned front pushing up past us, generate a building S'ly windswell later in the day to 2-3ft across south magnets but with SW tending S/SE winds.

Of greater importance is a S'ly groundswell expected from a broad and slow moving polar low that will form south of the state on Sunday. A fetch of W/SW gales will be generated in our southern swell window, producing a good S'ly groundswell for Tuesday morning, coming in at 3-4ft across regional south magnets, easing slowly through the day and smaller Wednesday morning.

Winds Tuesday morning look great and W/NW, gusty from the N/NW into the afternoon and then N/NW tending N/NE through Wednesday.

A much stronger low is forecast to form behind this initial system, but be located further west and out of our swell window until it weakens under the state on Tuesday.

This will be a large swell for the West and South Coasts, but for us, we're not expecting to see much over 2-3ft across south swell magnets Thursday. Strengthening N/NE tending N winds will favour south magnets but also kick up a building N/NE windswell.

The N/NE windswell at this stage looks to get quite punchy as a strong high sitting over New Zealand is squeezed by a strong mid-latitude front moving in from WA.

With a strong N/NE fetch from Wednesday evening through the end of the week, we're looking at sets to 3-4ft Friday when the swell peaks, ahead of a W/NW change on Saturday with easing surf. We'll have a closer look at this on Monday though. Have a great weekend!