Good size and offshore breezes from Sunday
Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 18th November)
Best Days: Sunday, Monday and Tuesday
Exposed south swell magnets picked up inconsistent sets in the 2-3ft range on Tuesday, with light offshore breeze persisting until mid morning. Conditions were good, although a bit slow before a seabreeze kicked in and had an impact on the quality. It was a similar scenario today, with light offshores holding through until mid morning, before giving way to a northeasterly breeze. As for the surf, we were on the downward trend, with only 1-2ft peaks across south facing beaches. Meanwhile, open beaches were picking up small and weak options in the 1ft range.
This week (Thursday 19th - Friday 20th):
The rest of the week will see an easing trend as swells generated earlier in the week fade across all coasts.
Southerly groundswell will fade to the 1-2ft range across south facing beaches on Thursday. Tiny amounts of northeasterly energy off a modest fetch which hugged the South Coast of NSW yesterday will also fade, struggling to crack the 1ft mark across open beaches.
Gusty northwesterly winds will keep conditions clean in the morning, however also have the potential to iron out some of this small energy, before easing and tending southeasterly in the afternoon.
A trough is set to deepen over southeastern Australia on Thursday, while an associated front is likely to sweep south of Tasmania. These systems will work in conjunction to steer a westerly fetch with core winds of 35-40kts south of Tassie, however we care about the southerly fetches trailing this system.
These 30-35kt southerly trailing fetches are likely to rapidly move in an easterly direction, remaining within the swell window for only a brief moment. Nevertheless, south facing beaches should offer options in the 1-2ft range across south facing beaches on Friday afternoon.
Local winds are likely to prevail from the northwest throughout the day, progressively increasing.
This weekend (Saturday 21st - Sunday 22nd):
The wind scenario for Saturday looks to be light and variable in the morning, tending southeasterly along the Scamander stretch in the late afternoon. Size wise, the surf should hold in the 1-2ft range across south facing beaches before a much more significant swell later on the weekend.
A broad and strong frontal progression is looking to move south of Tasmania and across southern parts of the Tasman Sea on Saturday, followed by a smaller, but more intense low on Sunday.
We can expect a healthy increase in size across south facing beaches late on Sunday as the impacts of the initial front are felt. The surf should build to the 4ft range by the afternoon, with open beaches seeing smaller options off refracted 15 second energy.
A good part of the day is likely to be under a light/variable northerly breeze, tending northwesterly in the afternoon. Conditions are looking great for the late session.
Next week (Monday 23rd onward):
Monday morning is expected to hold in the 4ft range across south facing beaches, maintained by a second pulse generated by the aforementioned intense low.
Winds are looking good, particularly north of St Helens where breezes look to be offshore all day. Further south, variable breeze have the potential to tend light onshore in the afternoon.
Conditions are likely to fade marginally from the 2-3ft range on Tuesday preceding yet another pulse to the 3ft range due on Wednesday morning.
Northwesterly breeze are looking to dominate from the northwest throughout one Tuesday, tending westerly and persisting throughout Wednesday potentially gusty at times.
All in all, it looks like a decent few days of surfing from Sunday onwards.