Plenty of southerly swell to come

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 3rd July)

Best Days: Saturday morning, Sunday, Monday morning, Wednesday morning, Thursday


Tiny yesterday again ahead of a late pulse on S'ly swell, with today offering great waves across south swell magnets under offshore winds.

This weekend and next week (Jul 2 – 10)

Today's good mix of S'ly swells should ease back through tomorrow, with fading 2ft+ sets across south swell magnets as offshore W/NW winds persist.

Our good pulses of S'ly groundswell for Sunday and Monday are still on track, with Monday's due to be the best of the bunch.

A vigorous polar low to our south-west will project a fetch of SW gales through our southern swell window, with a better aligned fetch of S/SW winds tomorrow and early Sunday, weaker from the S'th into Monday, but projecting up and towards us through the day.

An initial pulse of S'ly groundswell is due Sunday morning to 3-4ft across south facing beaches, with a secondary better pulse due later in the day to a similar if not slightly bigger size.

Monday morning should then see a better mix of S'ly and S/SE swell from a weaker fetch of S'ly winds persisting through our southern swell window, keeping 3-4ft sets hitting south facing beaches, persisting into Tuesday morning.

The projection of weaker S'ly winds up towards us Monday should then produce a reinforcing S/SE swell for Wednesday, with slightly bigger 3-5ft surf likely at this stage.

From Wednesday afternoon a general drop in swell is due, continuing into the end of the week.

Now, conditions on Sunday should be good through the morning with a W/NW tending light onshore breeze, with W/NW winds early Monday before an onshore E'ly develops through the day as a surface trough drifts across us. Tuesday then looks average with freshening E/SE winds as the trough starts pushing north up past us, while Wednesday could see morning variable winds. More on this Monday though. As the swell eases N/NW winds will favour south facing beaches.

Longer term some small NE swell is possible across the coast later next week, with stormy S'ly swell into the following week related to a strong cold outbreak, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!