Craig

Good new swell tomorrow and mid-late next week

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COVID-19 is changing the way we think about surfing. Travelling to the surf now means you're putting an unnecessary strain on the resources of small regional communities. So, please stay home. If you live near the beach and want to surf, please maintain a healthy spacing in the lineup, don't hang in the carpark, and keep your surf sessions shorter to allow others the opportunity to get wet. Above all, stay happy, healthy and look out for one another.

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 18th October)

Best Days: Tomorrow onwards, smallest Tuesday

This week through next week (Oct 19 - 26)

Bali: Some new S/SW swell should have filled in yesterday, and dropped through this morning, with our new long-period S/SW groundswell likely to show later today and peak through tomorrow.

This swell came in nicely across Western Australia and should provide good 5-6ft sets across exposed south swell magnets tomorrow, (smaller on the Bukit reefs) before easing later in the day, further through the weekend but softened by some mid-period reinforcing S/SW swell Sunday/Monday.

Winds look to remain out of the S/SE from tomorrow through the weekend, variable in the mornings, before taking a more S/SW bias through next week.

It doesn't look like the trades will kick in at all through this period.

Looking at our new S/SW groundswell due mid-next week, and the polar frontal progression firing up south-west of WA has been strengthened. A pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds is due to be followed by a good post-frontal fetch of strong to gale-force SW winds and then final stronger burst of SW gales projected towards WA.

We should see an initial small increase in S/SW groundswell from the pre-frontal fetch on Tuesday, building to 4ft at south magnets, with the larger groundswell building Wednesday to 6ft to possibly 8ft, easing from a similar size Thursday, back from 5-6ft Friday and smaller into the weekend.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: We should be seeing some new long-period S/SW groundswell energy building across the region this afternoon, with a peak due tomorrow to 4-6ft across south facing breaks, slowly dropping through the weekend with the mid-period S'ly energy.

With the slight upgrade in the frontal passage projecting towards WA, we should see some fun S/SW groundswell energy spreading radially up towards us, building Wednesday afternoon to 4-6ft at south facing breaks by dark, easing from a similar size on Thursday.

Looking at the winds and the small tropical low that's currently bringing winds from the western quadrant will move slowly south-east overnight resulting in better E/NE winds across the southern Ments tomorrow morning, NW to the north with S/SE winds developing into the afternoon across the south.

We're then due to see a return to morning SE breezes and afternoon S'ly winds from Saturday, persisting next week.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph