Craig

Easing surf ahead of a good S/SW groundswell Tuesday, more activity later next week

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 31st May)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, Tuesday and Wednesday next week, Friday the 8th onwards

This week and next (Jun 1 - 8)

Bali: Good waves the last couple of days with weaker trades and fun pulses of S/SW groundswell across the region.

We'll start to see the surf easing back through tomorrow from the 6ft range on the sets across swell magnets, further into Saturday as the trades start to kick in again from tomorrow afternoon.

There's been no real change to the swells due Sunday and more so Tuesday, with Sunday afternoon's being mid-period and without too much strength.

Swell magnets should kick to 4-5ft+ later in the day Sunday, then ease back from a similar size Monday morning, but of greater importance is Tuesday's swell.

This swell is being created by a good looking front that's projecting towards WA while generating a broad fetch of W/SW gales, followed by a trailing fetch of weakening but better aligned SW winds Friday evening before the system breaks down Saturday.

A good fun S/SW groundswell is expected Tuesday with fun sets to the 6ft range across magnets, easing slowly into Wednesday from 4-6ft, smaller into Thursday.

Looking at the winds, and the trades look strongest on Saturday, remaining fresh on Monday but then easing off from Tuesday and remaining light until later next week.

Longer term the models are starting to firm on a strong cold outbreak west of Western Australia early-mid next week, with a broad swathe of strong to gale-force SW winds due to be generated through our south-western and then southern swell windows.

We're likely to see moderate to large levels of consistent mid-period SW tending S/SW swell for late in the week and Saturday, but we'll have a closer look at this Tuesday as the storm develops.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: Inconsistent long-period S/SW groundswell energy seen through today should start to ease back through tomorrow, dropping from 4-5ft+, smaller into Saturday.

A small spike in mid-period southerly swell Sunday afternoon and Monday morning only looks to come in at 3-5ft with variable winds, easing into Tuesday morning.

The better S/SW groundswell pulse for later Tuesday/Wednesday is the best of this forecast period, with south magnets hopefully building to 4-5ft+ later in the day, with 4-6ft sets Wednesday morning.

Winds are still looking a bit average for these south magnets and fresh out of the S/SE Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday as a strong high starts to ridge in from the south-west, possibly keeping these winds persisting until late in the week.

The mid-period swell energy for late in the week and weekend will initially be aimed OK before moving too east and away from our swell windows. More on this Tuesday.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph