Craig

Easing surf tomorrow with a good new S/SW swell Saturday

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 19th October)

Best Days: Every day until the swell bottoms out from Tuesday

This week and next (Oct 20 - 27)

Bali: A strong new S/SW groundswell has peaked this morning across the region, produced by an intense mid-latitude low off the WA coast earlier this week.

This swell has provided good consistent waves across most breaks and should ease into this afternoon, down quickly through tomorrow from 5-6ft at south magnets.

Our new S/SW groundswell for Saturday is looking fun, with a strong polar front forming behind the mid-latitude on Sunday, projecting a fetch of weakening but broadening SW gales up towards WA.

We should see this swell arriving late Friday and peaking Saturday morning the 21st to a solid 6ft+ across exposed breaks, holding most of the day before easing back slowly Sunday from 6ft on the sets.

The swell will drop further Monday the 23rd from 4-5ft at exposed breaks, smaller Tuesday and bottoming out Wednesday through Friday.

Winds will take a slight W/SW tendency over the coming days (variable each morning) with variable breezes and afternoon sea breezes due from Monday before weak SE trades kick in mid-week.

Longer term there's no new swell due until next weekend and more so early the following week when some distant long-period SW groundswell followed by S/SW swell fills in, but more on this Tuesday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: We should be seeing a strong S'ly swell building across the region this afternoon, taking the place of some decent mid-period energy. Sets should reach 6ft at spots exposed to the south, easing back from 5-6ft tomorrow morning.

We'll then see our new long-period S'ly groundswell filling in Saturday with less consistency than today's swell, reaching a good 6ft on the sets into the afternoon before backing off through Sunday from 5-6ft.

As with Bali, from here on there's nothing major on the cards for next week with the surf bottoming out through the middle of the week ahead of some background SW energy later Wednesday and Thursday from a low south of Madagascar.

Longer term there's some better groundswell energy due from next weekend/early the following week, but more on this Tuesday.

Winds look as if they'll take a slight S/SE tendency through tomorrow and the weekend before tending variable from Monday and remaining so most of the week.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph

Comments

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 20 Oct 2017 at 6:04pm

Maybe something coming around the end of the month?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Tuesday, 24 Oct 2017 at 11:57am

MSW - Ulu today 4.5ft
how about 4.5 inches -Bali Belly cam