Craig

Small week, better swells from this weekend

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 24th October)

Best Days: Bali - later Saturday onwards, Ments - Thursday, early Friday, Saturday onwards

This week and next (Oct 25 – Nov 2)

Bali: After fun waves late last week and into the start of the weekend, the swell has really faded away into this week, leaving waves only at exposed swell magnets.

Unfortunately as touched on last Thursday, there's no significant swells due through this week. The swell will continue to bottom out into tomorrow and Thursday, with some inconsistent background energy Friday.

From Saturday the 28th we'll start to see the surf slowly build, but this will be very inconsistent long-range SW groundswell energy, produced by a distant storm south-east of Madagascar.

Only very infrequent 4-5ft sets are due across swell magnets later in the day, while into Sunday a better more consistent S/SW swell should fill in, peaking Monday morning the 30th.

This swell is being generated by a relatively weak but favourably tracking frontal system that's coming in from under South Africa, generating an initial long-period SW groundswell (due Monday afternoon/Tuesday) and is pushing north of Heard Island, up towards WA over the coming days.

We should see some fun sets pushing up to the 6ft range Sunday afternoon across exposed breaks, easing back from a similar size Monday morning, while the long-period energy will slow this easing trend into the afternoon.

Very inconsistent 5ft sets are due into the late afternoon, peaking in the 6ft range Tuesday the 31st ahead of some reinforcing S/SW swell Wednesday morning to a similar size.

Our models are over-forecasting the size later Tuesday and Wednesday morning as it incorrectly combines the reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell with the long-period groundswell, so keep this in mind.

Well then see the surf ease temporarily into Thursday morning the 2nd ahead of some new long-period and acute S'ly groundswell later in the day.

This swell is forecast to be generated by a very intense but late forming low south-west of WA this weekend, with a short-lived fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds due to be generated in our southern swell window.

The swell looks to boost wave heights back to 6ft at exposed south facing breaks, much smaller inside the Bukit due to the angle of the swell. From here on the surf will ease, with nothing significant due into the following week.

Coming back to the winds and our current variable breezes will take a S/SE-SE tendency from Thursday, variable each morning with local land breezes.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: Similar to Bali, the swell is quite small across the region, bottoming out tomorrow morning.

We should see some small SW groundswell from a low south-east of Madagascar building later tomorrow and peaking Thursday the 26th, providing surf in the 4ft range across magnets, easing back into Friday.

Similar to Bali we'll see some new background long-range S/SW groundswell arriving into Saturday, reaching an inconsistent 3-5ft across exposed breaks, dropping back slightly into Sunday morning.

Some better long-period but inconsistent SW groundswell is due to build later Sunday and peak Monday, generated south-west of South Africa by a very intense storm. This storm generated storm-force W'ly winds in our far window, continuing east closer towards us while weakening.

The remnants of this storm is the system firing up towards WA, pictured and should produce some additional S/SW swell for us into Tuesday.

But coming back to the long-period energy and we should see this swell building late Sunday to 4ft or so, reaching an inconsistent but strong 6ft on the sets Monday across exposed breaks, holding Tuesday before easing back through Wednesday from 5ft+.

We may see a slight kick in long-period S'ly groundswell later Thursday and Friday morning, but this swell isn't ideally aimed at all and will likely just provide 4ft+ sets, easing back Friday.

Looking at the winds over the coming period and we'll see good variable tending locally offshore breezes each morning, giving into afternoon sea breezes.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph

Comments

geoffrey's picture
geoffrey's picture
geoffrey commented Wednesday, 25 Oct 2017 at 7:39am

is it common for the wind to be a bit slack in the mornings in bali this time of year? according to our forecast it looks like the wind will be SE over the next week just wondering if i can sneak in some early east coast surfs between family duties. cheers.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 25 Oct 2017 at 7:55am

Yeah, and even when our models show fresh trades during the peak season, there's still variable winds on offer each morning. This time of year they'll last longer.

geoffrey's picture
geoffrey's picture
geoffrey commented Wednesday, 25 Oct 2017 at 3:01pm

Cheers mate legend

David Gregory's picture
David Gregory's picture
David Gregory commented Thursday, 26 Oct 2017 at 10:54am

Hi Craig,

Are you putting out update today. Id like to get some clarity around the Tuesday / Wednesday prediction for next week . You state some over-prediction of size in the models for these days, do you have any updates you can offer.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Sunday, 29 Oct 2017 at 9:30am

Well predicted with the new swell showing on Ulu cam...and building.

geoffrey's picture
geoffrey's picture
geoffrey commented Sunday, 29 Oct 2017 at 10:36am

reckon the charts are still overcalling mon-wed?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Sunday, 29 Oct 2017 at 10:54am

Are you on the Bukit geoffrey ?

geoffrey's picture
geoffrey's picture
geoffrey commented Sunday, 29 Oct 2017 at 2:03pm

Yea mate should be in about 10 hours. You?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Sunday, 29 Oct 2017 at 2:20pm

Was going to be but this swell and direction didnt quite gell properly with me so pulled pin at last minute....
Early morns Geger or Serangan could be ok i think.

geoffrey's picture
geoffrey's picture
geoffrey commented Sunday, 29 Oct 2017 at 2:49pm

Perfect I’m staying right at geger with family. Will make the wife happy if i don’t spend all day looking for waves! ChEers mate

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Tuesday, 31 Oct 2017 at 6:09pm

Howd you go geoffrey ...you get a few at Geger ?
Been watching Ulu camera past few days .....hardly epic Ulu but with very few people in the water [ 1 solo atm] Just fine for late season Brazzo free few days of surf.

geoffrey's picture
geoffrey's picture
geoffrey commented Tuesday, 31 Oct 2017 at 10:32pm

Hey mate been getting waves each morning a few kms down the road at an okay right hander. Sure u know the one. Geger has looked a bit wild and big. Haven't seen anyone out there yet.

geoffrey's picture
geoffrey's picture
geoffrey commented Wednesday, 1 Nov 2017 at 9:14am

Looks like a carbon copy of the last few days can't see any signs of a new swell but it's still solid at Nusa dua. So would have to say Craig was right with the overcall. Craig u doing any notes for this week mate? Cheers

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 1 Nov 2017 at 9:16am

Craig's enjoying the fruit of his labour this week. So, no updates unfortunately.

geoffrey's picture
geoffrey's picture
geoffrey commented Wednesday, 1 Nov 2017 at 10:47am

No worries mate! Hope he has fun

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Thursday, 4 Jan 2018 at 8:18pm

Forecast Gurus....thoughts Tue 9th onwards....a week of swell for Bali ?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Thursday, 4 Jan 2018 at 8:36pm

You heading over , Udo ?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Friday, 5 Jan 2018 at 10:15am

Possibly....anyone care to glance at the charts?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 5 Jan 2018 at 10:29am

Not the most amazing outlook, mid-period swells to start with, strengthening late week and over the weekend. Maxing out in the 5-6ft range.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Tuesday, 27 Mar 2018 at 12:07pm

When do you restart the Indo forecasts
A set month or first swell of the season ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 27 Mar 2018 at 12:32pm

Should kick off at the start of April.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Wednesday, 28 Mar 2018 at 5:49pm

evo
Next Tuesday.