Craig

Good strong swells to come with favourable winds

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 30th June)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period, largest Saturday/Sunday and Tuesday

This week and next (Jun 24 – Jul 8)

A large and powerful S/SW groundswell filled in Tuesday but funky winds and weather favoured some locations over others. Since then the surf has eased with smaller waves seen into today.

Tomorrow is expected to be smaller again with fading 3-5ft sets across swell magnets with variable winds ahead of afternoon E/SE trades.

Into the weekend we've got a strong long-period S/SW groundswell due across the region, generated by a strong polar low firing up in the Heard Island region this week. A good pre-frontal and then post-frontal fetch of severe-gale W/SW tending SW winds were projected towards WA, with the swell currently impacting that state.

The swell should arrive very late in the day Friday but probably not show size until Saturday, with it due to build to a good 6-8ft across exposed breaks. There may be the odd random bomb in the mix, but these will be rare. A drop in size from 6-8ft is then expected Sunday, smaller into Monday.

Winds over the coming days and next week will be similar each day with variable breezes through the mornings and E/SE trades into the afternoons.

Into later Monday and more so Tuesday, a very long-range and inconsistent but long-period S/SW groundswell is due, but this one will have a touch more west in it than the weekend.

This swell begun its production south-east of South Africa earlier this week with a vigorous polar low generating a fetch of storm-force W/SW winds through our far swell window. This low has since weakened slightly but proceeded with strength across Heard Island, and it's currently weakening south-west of WA.

The swell from this system will be very inconsistent but come in around a similar size to the weekend's with 6-8ft sets at exposed breaks, Tuesday morning. A gradual easing trend is then due through the afternoon, further Wednesday and into Thursday.

Longer term into next weekend some very inconsistent small to moderate sized SW groundswell is due, with some larger swell on the cards for Tuesday/Wednesday the 12/13th but more on this Tuesday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 commented Friday, 1 Jul 2016 at 10:44am

Looking like back to back long period swells for some time come Tuesday through to Saturday next week? Are you updating again Tuesday Craig? Appreciate the forecasting efforts.

Flying in Monday night. Can't wait.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 1 Jul 2016 at 10:48am

Yes will be, the longer-range energy from mid-next week doesn't have heaps of size to it until mid the following week.

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 commented Friday, 1 Jul 2016 at 10:58am

That's fine, what it lacks in size will hopefully make up in power.

groovie's picture
groovie's picture
groovie commented Friday, 1 Jul 2016 at 8:44pm

g'day Craig arrived t"day 1st july Swell is tiny on reefs @ Kuta! when is this swell filling in tomorrow am or later in the day! Hoping to hit middle reef for a n early in the morn but above 6ft it closes out! So it's all about the timing! Thanx in anticipation of some GR8 swell!

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Saturday, 2 Jul 2016 at 12:02am

Small but quality surf in indo ahead

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Saturday, 2 Jul 2016 at 12:02am

Small but quality surf in indo ahead

groovie's picture
groovie's picture
groovie commented Monday, 4 Jul 2016 at 12:39pm

Good waves on the outer reefs of Tuban the last couple of days! Tides have been huge so timing has been vital. Winds were cross-shore till 1:30 yesterday when the e/s/east trade set in! T,day swell has backed off but anticipating a new swell o/nite & into tommorrow. When is your nxt prognosis Craig?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 4 Jul 2016 at 5:06pm

Yep Groovie, swell should start showing this afternoon, with tomorrow morning revealing the peak in size. Should be some good fun waves on offer! Next update tomorrow.