Large swell for next Tuesday, likely last of the month

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Large swell for next Tuesday, likely last of the month

Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Thursday, 17 September 2015

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 17th September)

Best Days: Friday morning, Sunday onwards

This week and next week (Sep 18 - 25)

Good waves the last few days, but the swell's starting to slow up across the region.

Not to worry, as there's plenty more to come in what's been a great September.

Tomorrow a kick in new S/SW groundswell is due, with exposed breaks due to offer 5-6ft sets before easing through the afternoon and further into Saturday morning.

Our very inconsistent long-range SW groundswell for later Saturday and Sunday hasn't changed, with good but very infrequent 6ft to possibly 8ft sets due to be seen across swell magnets when it peaks through the day Sunday. This swell should be seen later Saturday but only reaching the 4-6ft range later in the day. Keep in mind there will likely be 10 minute + waits between sets, with much smaller waves in between.

Monday is then due to be small ahead of a late large and strong kick in S/SW groundswell, due to peak Tuesday.

This groundswell is currently being generated through the southern Indian Ocean to the south-west of WA, with a broad fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds setting in motion an active sea state for a stronger fetch of storm-force SW winds to move over, projecting ideally north-eastwards through our swell window.

The swell should kick later in the day Monday but only to 6ft to possibly 8ft on dark across exposed breaks, peaking Tuesday to 8-10ft.

A slow drop in size is then due through Wednesday, with it being softened on Thursday by a new less consistent and more southerly S/SW groundswell from a secondary but less favourably aligned polar front firing up over the weekend.

Winds over the coming period are due to be moderate to fresh from the E/SE, weakest from Sunday through Tuesday.

Longer term there's some small to moderate S/SW groundswell on the cards towards the end of the month, but we'll look at this again on Tuesday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

johnfoss Friday, 25 Sep 2015 at 9:57am

Hi Craig,
Are you going to keep posting forecasts into October? I'm curious as to what you think may about that big blob brewing over the next 8 days or so.
Cheers

thermalben Friday, 25 Sep 2015 at 10:05am

Craig's away on leave for the next week or so.. won't be any Indo forecasts until the first week of October. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Cylinders85 Friday, 25 Sep 2015 at 4:25pm

Near flat conditions in bali today. But not complaining the surf has been great for the last week. 2 more days left hopefully get a few before heading home.

johnfoss Friday, 25 Sep 2015 at 4:57pm

Thanks for the heads up. Think I'll extend my stay in Indo to chase the swell coming around the 4th of Oct.

thermalben Friday, 25 Sep 2015 at 4:59pm

Yeah it looks like a biggie too.. somewhere in the 10ft+ range, and holding steady in that range for 3-4 days.

DeXtrus Monday, 28 Sep 2015 at 3:18pm

Thanks, just changed my flights to arrive on 5th instead of 8th!

gibbsy Friday, 2 Oct 2015 at 5:41pm

So, umm..... how big ya thinking on this one?

caml Friday, 2 Oct 2015 at 7:32pm

A bit bigger than expected today in WA !

gibbsy Friday, 2 Oct 2015 at 8:30pm

Good to hear thanks camel. Hopefully g land holds. We just had a mate of yours rob wall out here. Loved it.

caml Friday, 2 Oct 2015 at 8:41pm

Ok gibbsy robs a champ that's great news.

udo Monday, 5 Oct 2015 at 3:45pm

Slim from Bali waves has posted some nice pics of yesterday, 6-10 ft Ulu some nice tube sequences.
Jim Banks comments struggling to get into them on my new 8'0 it was crazy out there.

BaliBelly Ulu cam shows it pumping today still xxl.

mick-free Monday, 5 Oct 2015 at 10:47pm

Jim broke that 8'0 Udo....bit of morning sickness today at Ulu

Check Johnny D barrel

https://www.facebook.com/magicmaws/videos/10156226484085724

caml Tuesday, 6 Oct 2015 at 12:25am

Super sick barrell ! Cheers mick .so Banksy needs more foam but he is scared of thicker more volume !? . If hes struggling to get into them he will continue to struggle unless he changes something . Cmon jim I want see you all over it ! Don't make it hard upon yourself . Shape up a 8"6 or something that paddles upstream . Btw jim is one of the best paddlers ive ever witnessed !