Craig

Slow end to the week, better southerly swell next week

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 4th August)

Best Days: Friday morning exposed breaks, Tuesday onwards

This week and next week (Aug 5 – Aug 14)

Late last week and over the weekend a good S/SW groundswell offered decent waves across most breaks, and this has eased back into the start of the week, with a reinforcing but inconsistent and acute S'ly groundswell filling in today.

The swell will drop back through tomorrow, and only a small kick in infrequent background S/SW groundswell is due into Thursday afternoon reaching 3-5ft at exposed breaks, before easing Friday and further into the weekend.

The trades are due to strengthen again into Thursday before relaxing into Friday and the end of the week and persisting in the moderate to fresh range next week.

Swell wise, we're finally due to see some better S/SW groundswell across the region into the start of next week, as a strong and multi-stage polar frontal progression fires up south-east of South Africa today and pushes slowly east over the coming week generating winds in the gale to severe-gale range.

A series of inconsistent S/SW groundswell pulses should result, the first arriving Tuesday, with a secondary pulse for Wednesday. Exposed spots are due to pick up 6ft to possibly 8ft sets during the peak of the swell before dropping back Thursday and into the end of the week.

Longer term the models diverge on the outlook into early the week of the 17th, so we'll have a closer look at this on Thursday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2015 at 12:54pm

Finally the season starting!

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2015 at 1:36pm

Not sure I'd call a one off fleeting pulse as "finally the season starting".

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2015 at 1:40pm

Agree with Don, no other signficant swells after early next week's.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2015 at 2:42pm

Fark when is it going to start then

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2015 at 2:47pm

There is another swell event 15 - 18 August. So thats atleast consistently 4 -5 foot plus for the 8 days starting the 11th. I thought maybe a run to the Ments, hows the angle crangle?

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2015 at 2:57pm

Haha, nah not good for chasing to the Ments. You'll be heading away from the size and where it'll be biggest, ie Eastern Indonesia.

Fronts firing up towards WA, if were developing south-east of South Africa and Madagascar, pushing north-east you'd be on.

Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85 commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2015 at 5:21pm

I am Heading over 17th September hoping for a gold end late season.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2015 at 9:26pm

September is bound to pump IMO.

Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85's picture
Cylinders85 commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2015 at 8:54am

Hope your right don. This ash cloud is this causing issues with flights atm. Don't mind getting stuck over there not getting there be a big downer.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2015 at 12:28pm

I haven't heard anything of late on the volcano and it also depends on winds and where you're going.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2015 at 12:32pm

Yeah few flights returned and cancelled yesty Don.