Craig

Good swells to come, possibly large to end the month

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 16th June)

Best Days: Thursday onwards

This week and next week (Jun 17 - 26)

The surf's bottomed out into this morning and will remain small through tomorrow, with only a slight kick in long-range and small S/SW groundswell due to 3-4ft at exposed breaks.

Of greater importance is a strong and large but inconsistent SW groundswell due to build through Thursday, peaking overnight and easing slowly Friday and further into the weekend.

This was generated by a strong and slow moving frontal progression through the southern Indian Ocean later last week and into the weekend.

The swell should build through the day Thursday and reach 6-8ft+ across exposed breaks by dark, peaking overnight and then easing from a similar if not slightly smaller size Friday morning. Saturday morning should then see smaller and easing surf from 5-6ft+ at exposed spots. There'll also be some shorter-period S/SW swell in the mix from a cut-off low west of WA, but this will be smaller than the long-range SW energy.

The trades are due to kick up again through Thursday and become strong Friday and Saturday before easing back again into Sunday.

Later in the day Sunday a new inconsistent S/SW groundswell is due, generated by a strong polar low firing up late in our swell window to the south-west of WA last night.

This low is generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds through our southern swell window, with an inconsistent but strong S/SW groundswell due to arrive late in the day Sunday but really not offer any major size above 4ft at exposed breaks.

Monday should reveal more size to an infrequent 5-6ft at exposed breaks, backing off through the day and further from 3-4ft+ Tuesday morning.

Longer term there's nothing too significant for the rest of the week, but into the the end of the month, we've got a couple of large SW groundswells lining up for the region. This will be related to a strong node of the Long Wave Trough moving through the Indian Ocean. But we'll have a closer look at this on Thursday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

GoofyPaul's picture
GoofyPaul's picture
GoofyPaul commented Tuesday, 16 Jun 2015 at 7:01pm

What about that possible large S/SW groundswell which was on the cards for the 23rd/24th? Disappeared?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 16 Jun 2015 at 7:20pm

Yeah unfortunately, pushed back with that activity a few days later.

GoofyPaul's picture
GoofyPaul's picture
GoofyPaul commented Tuesday, 16 Jun 2015 at 7:46pm

Allright. Thanks for that

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2015 at 1:01pm

If that swell progged for Sun 28th comes off, are we talking about one of the biggest swells ever to hit Indo?

The forecast fetch is incredible.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2015 at 1:05pm

It is incredible, article up very soon.