Craig

Good period of swell, large over the weekend

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 26th May)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period, experienced surfers only Saturday and Sunday

This week and next week (May 27 - Jun 5)

Smaller waves the last day or so will finally give way to some better swell from tomorrow, ahead of a large, powerful and long-period S/SW groundswell over the weekend.

First though a new moderate to large sized S/SW groundswell is due to build through tomorrow and peak into the afternoon ahead of a secondary reinforcing pulse Thursday, generated late last week in the southern Indian Ocean.

Exposed breaks are due to build to an infrequent 5-6ft with the chance of the rare bigger bomb, easing just a touch back to 5-6ft through Thursday and then further down into Friday from 4-5ft.

Late Friday a new acute S'ly swell is due, produced by a small cut-off low south-west of WA Sunday and yesterday, boosting exposed breaks back to 4-5ft, before easing into Saturday morning from a similar size.

Of much greater importance is the arrival of a very inconsistent but strong and large S/SW groundswell through the day Saturday, building solidly into the afternoon and easing Sunday.

This is being generated by a very strong polar low that formed in the Heard Island region yesterday, producing an initial fetch of storm-force W'ly winds before being projected north-east towards Australia, while continuing to produce severe-gale SW tending S/SW winds.

The long-period fore-runners of this swell should arrive on dark Friday but with no size, with the swell building noticeably through Saturday, reaching 6-8ft+ on dark across exposed breaks.

A peak is due overnight, but Sunday morning should still reveal large 6-8ft+ surf, easing back through the day and further from 5-6ft+ Monday morning.

Lighter trades are due over the coming couple of days before freshening again from Friday and persisting into the following week. With this though we should see periods of variable winds early each morning at all locations with local land breezes.

Longer term another large long-period but very inconsistent SW groundswell is due Thursday/Friday next week, generated south-east of South Africa and Madagascar through the end of this week.

We'll have a closer look at this on Thursday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph