Fun weekend, much better into next week
Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thu 4th Sep)
Best Days: Saturday, midday Monday onwards
This week and weekend (Sep 5 - 7)
The swell is about as small as its been for weeks across Bali today, and we'll see it become even slower into tomorrow as it bottoms out. Super exposed breaks should still offer very inconsistent 2-3ft sets and conditions will be favourable through the morning with a variable breeze.
The small long-range S/SW groundswell due Saturday is still on track with a kick in size to a very inconsistent 3-5ft due across exposed breaks through the day Saturday. This will then throttle back from 3-4ft+ Sunday as E/SE trades start to strengthen.
Next week onwards (Sep 8 onwards)
There's been no real change to the outlook for next week, with a strong node of the Long Wave Trough moving through the South-eastern Indian Ocean over the coming days.
This is steering a series of vigorous polar fronts up through our swell window, with the strongest system due to project up towards WA from a position west of Heard Island this evening and through tomorrow and into the weekend.
An initial couple of pulses of SW groundswell are due through Monday afternoon, with a secondary pulse for later Tuesday and Wednesday morning, but the largest increase is due to arrive on dark Wednesday and peak Thursday to a large 8-10ft across exposed breaks around Bali.
Before this, the initial pulses look to be in the less consistent 6ft range at exposed breaks.
Winds will be generally moderate to fresh from the E/SE, with variable breezes at selected locations each morning.
The swell should drop through Friday and further Saturday morning but we're likely to see a secondary spike in more southerly S/SW groundswell late in the day, easing through Sunday.
This will be generated on the tail of the frontal progression generating Thursday's swell, and will be right off south-west WA, very late in our swell window. This will result in less size around Sumbawa, while Bali and East Java should see sets pushing 8ft+ again if all goes to plan.
We'll have another look at this again on Tuesday though.