We should then see a low centred just off Sydney rapidly deepen o/night into tomorrow morning with W’ly gales north of the low and SW-S gales south of the low. The low moves away quickly tomorrow with SW-S gales tending to strong winds from the same direction through the day.
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Coastal low brings a rapid spike in big, windy surf easing rapidly to fun, clean surf on the weekend
The main feature on this week's synoptic charts is a cut-off low that’s expected to intensify off Southern NSW around Thursday, delivering a rapid increase in short range southerly swell and associated SW tending S’ly winds.
Quite a strong front and deep low passes through the southern extremity of the Tasman Sea swell window Mon/Tues- with S swell likely to build Wed or Thurs.
Small S swells continue to be the main swell trains.
An ice shelf fetch over the weekend looked strong on paper but the extent to which winter sea ice has hindered swell generation remains a key source of uncertainty.
Still on track for a wintry blast this weekend as a strong cold front tied to an intense low currently west of Tasmania sweeps up over the SE overnight and enters the Tasman early tomorrow morning.
Winds shift W’ly as the initial frontal system sweeps across NSW tomorrow, with a stronger front and low moving up over NSW and then entering the Tasman with a vengeance into the weekend.
These low centres are focussing areas of E’ly infeed along the trough line- perfectly aimed at east coast targets.
Plenty of chunky short range S swell through Sun as the low generates a proximate fetch of S’ly low end gales along the south coast to Hunter.
We’ll see the E’ly flow continue to develop in the Northern Tasman and Coral Seas through this week, with swells from that E-NE quadrant building through this short term period under an onshore flow.