A retreating trade fetch gets supercharged by a developing trough and low in the South Pacific, reaching maximum intensity between Tongan and Tahitian longitudes. Despite the travel distance, we should see some quality long range E swell from this source, with some size from the south this week as the front and low traverse the Tasman.
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High pressure across the interior of NSW will be moving across Southern NSW into the Tasman, with a trade fetch currently anchored by a small low sliding off to the SE over the weekend.
There is a trough in the Coral Sea with an associated cloud band which is expected to play a role in focussing Tradewinds which form up later this week on the back of a SE surge.
Model divergence remains pronounced for the outcomes from this, with GFS still suggesting some kind of trough/easterly dip and enhanced E’ly swells. The European model has a more subdued outlook with a weaker high and trade-wind band remaining further north in line with seasonal norms.
On it’s own that will see a broad E’ly fetch develop likely in the New Caledonia quadrant, extending into the South Pacific slot. GFS adds to that recipe for a round of (sizey) trade swell with a deepening trough in the Coral Sea which spawns a surface low mid week, currently modelled to track southwards into the Tasman.
The swell direction will tweak more S/SE with some quality pulses due from tomorrow through the weekend, though winds are a little dicey.
We’ll see the low move slowly out to sea later tomorrow and generate an initial pulse of local, directional S swell before moving further into the Tasman with better angled swells produced for later in the week.
The story of next week is still a stalled low in the Tasman- although swell potential gets a major upgrade as the low gets moving Tues and gets into a swell generating position.
With the Tasman Sea inflamed by these robust S’ly fetches we’ll see strong S’ly swells in the short term, improving in quality as size eases from the proximate fetch and better quality swell trains fill in from below and adjacent to the South Island.
The energy cranks right up Wed across NENSW, trickling into SEQLD later in the day as strong winds to low end gales develop off the NSW South to Central Coast and into the Tasman and then push northwards around a trough.