Meo Rip Curl Pro Portugal - Early Forecast
It's late winter in the North Atlantic and the Portuguese coast has been under a constant onslaught of swell in recent weeks. Fortunately for the Championship Tour, the trend is set to continue during the lead-up to the Meo Rip Curl Pro Portugal next week.
The waiting period officially kicks off Wednesday week (evening Australian time), the 8th of March and will run through until the 16th.
The current pattern has lows spawning off Canada's Nova Scotia coast, with a couple of large to extra-large westerly groundswells due to impact the European coastline from tomorrow through to the end of the week.
Though located on the south side of the Peniche peninsula, Supertubos has full exposure to the west so will receive the brunt of the energy. The local winds will be troublesome at times, swinging too north-west, however there'll also be moments of respite when the wind is north, north-east, and even east - though admittedly that arrives on Saturday when the swell is waning.
At any rate, with good swell and workable local winds there'll be ample opportunity for competitors to dial themselves into Supertubos. Expect to see numerous clips pop up on your social media feeds.
So much for the warm up, what about the main game?
Heading into the start of the waiting period, the trend appears to hold with lows swinging off the Nova Scotia and Newfoundland coasts, providing a constant progression of swell. They may not be as large as the swells hitting this week, however they're westerly in direction and will therefore make landfall without losing size.
It's too early to dial in size, however the trend would indicate a few days of moderate to large Supertubos. It's a little too far out to predict local winds, especially with storms travelling close to the European coast.
During the second half of the period, the storm trend changes with activity retreating to the north. On the ground, this will mean the north-west swells have to wrap around the Peniche peninsula, losing a few feet before striking Supertubos.
Regardless, it also appears a very active phase, meaning that although the swell will be attenuated there shouldn't be an issue with contestable size. As with the first half of the period, contest days will revolve around the local winds and these are still up in the air.
In short, there'll be no issue with swell at the Meo Rip Curl Pro, with organisers paying closer attention to the wind switches.
With the divergence we'll have to go over the possible contest days when the models come more into alignment later week.
It's been pumping. The angle from 5:10 on is dreamy.
You're not wrong...how good does that angle after 5 mins look!!!
x2. That was sick.
How fun does that look. I wouldn’t know what to do in waves like that it’s been that long
Pumping amazing banks breaking close to shore.
Almost guarantees the WSL won't get it like that!
Funny I thought the bloke in the yellow jersey might have been Pip or Jack flying over early for warm ups wearing their Jeep Leader kit - full domination mode! Imagine your local boardriders in that!?
Craig opines that local winds are still up in the air.
Love your work.
His wordsmanship causes absolutely no attenuation in my swelling...
Checked that first swell earlier today 4m @ 17sec at Madeira. Big!
And a decent bloody timezone to settle in at the end of the day and enjoy some surfing.
Done with 2am wake ups.
WSL seems to be a pus magnet.
Small onshore alternate venue with heavy spin on how good it is for the environment.
I think I'm over it.
Seriously we all want to see A grade surfers putting it on the line in serious surf(serious).
Less crap comps for the money, quality waves will create the spectacle that the WSL needs to be valid.
Take the WSL longboard 'tour' one or two comps to decide a World Champ, no wonder Joel Tudor was censored by the hierarchy.
Whats their exit strategy post Kelly?
More pools and more sanitised coverage?
Maybe you should send them a letter
Maybe we all should.
Good comment. They seem to be just so far out of touch but like most big business they believe their own spin. Lots of letters may bury them in paper!
A comps a comp …
Pumping waves best thing since sliced bread ….
Onshore slop …
Hey baker boy clean up that shit ….
Awesome…bring it on.
Could be a good event,
How's the banks looking ? Anyone on the ground ?
Right now, all those swells in the first half are still looking to be wrecked by winds. One break between systems and it'll be pumping.
who wins if it like this? JJF?
Those throaty kegs would be right up Jack Robbo's alley (as well as JJF)
are they the best 2 tube riders on tour at the moment Bnkref....
WSL calls the top dog shirt yellow; some may see it as gold....
Italo digging deep for gold....& eating sandwedges
Yeah I reckon
Supertubos is a top 3 best CT comp to watch. Change my mind
When the waves are good, yes
Mostly dreary onshore grey water close-outs under grey skies.
Has it's moments though, but it will suffer greatly (by comparison) after Bluewater finals day at Sunset.
Lets hope it turns on- been a long time since it's produced.
Also, guaranteed to only have one or 2 good days in the window.
For mine one of the worst stops. Full lottery. Unlikely to be good. Would prefer Hossegor.
Not to mention the fog which you could cut with a knife yet 10 mins inland beautiful sunny day.
Alongside Rio and The Pond right??
Agree, it’s been largely grim to date. But supers is such a good, heavy wave but just consistently underperforms in comps. Compared with sunset, Margaret’s, bells, trestles, rio… flip, there’s some proper lemons in the mix. Let’s hope it lives up to its potential this year.
Yeah, Seen it decent-good a handful of times since it slotted in as Rip Curl Search pro and then Replace Mundaka. Vicious winds have all too often played havoc though. Swell will be there but will the brisk NEasterlies compliment the juice? Just look at that Italo cam rewind - that's exactly what we need, 6-8ft and throaty. Broken boards in tow (watching you Italo) like that one 4footer of a nugget that savaged Bobby Martinez
It was firing just last year. Albeit just for 1 day.
Portugal is the closest thing to a home comp for Ramzi Boukhiam - just a short paddle across the Strait of Gibraltar, right? - but yesterday he posted footage of himself still wearing a moonboot.
He's already one comp down (missed two but surfers drop one result before the cut) so surviving the cut is possible but extremely difficult. If he misses Portugal then it's pretty much impossible.
He'd be hoping for the 2024 injury wildcard, as long as Kelly doesn't pull a fetlock.
Pretty damn small this morning. Can only see one surfer out:
Looks like onshore winds will kill off the first three days of competition (outside chance Friday morning), but next weekend should see thins improve and with plenty of size.
Yeah back end of the waiting period looks sizey and potentially better/lighter winds (albeit still a long way out for any real local wind forecast accuracy)
An airshow, then deep tubes; may favour some
The Goat will gloat on the amazing surf he’s getting at Baleal in his post heat interviews
Hahaha! No doubt
Money will be on molly to do well here. Seen her surf in punchy beachies a few times and she knows how to sniff out a tube.
Holy Smokes! pumping!
What an amazing wave
The backhand takeoff at 2.10min was the one that got me hooting!
Some legit 8-10 footers. That was mega.
I’m concerned this run of good supers means bad things for the comp.
Looked like LOB (helmet?) was charging
Who’s the goofy with the yellow panels on his wetty?
Looks the first clean day is Sunday
Yep, Saturday now looking onshore, but Sunday the go.
Thanks for sharing.
LOB perfectly at home out there. Like a big strad day which he's always the standout.
Anyone have any intel on the swell direction in those vids?
Pretty sure it's been straight W swells the last few days.
I'm intrigued with this setup.
It must have shoals of sand sitting out in the bay refracting swells?
It's so bizarre to see when you're there.
It's like looking down the beach a couple of ks at a stock standard straight beachie like Belongil or Wamberal and all of a sudden, randomly there's a stretch of about 200m of insane A frames.
Would be interested to know how that happens.
Yeah it's been W.
And yeah look at the bathy, a bit of a canyon and in shore features to peak up the swell lines when the swell is more west to south-west.
Cheers for that.
Looks like there's a little canyon there to swing that swell in with a little extra oomph.
Those outer bank roll-in waves at 00:45 and 02:17! Why is nobody doing that?
Wsl might luck out, looks like could be 3-4 good days of competition with potential for an epic day on Sunday latest forecast saying 6-8ft and light offshore winds all day wow!. Get the non elimination heats done in onshore surf to allow for overlapping heats when its pumping I say. Slater to win against John John In the final.
when is the last time john john won a CT event.... frenchy
just checked myself frenchy 2years ago @pipemasters. after looking very quickly at his stats he is more likely to get an injury than win.
It is unfortunate the amount of injuries he's had, I would imagine if he was healthy he would of won multiple comps last year, seriously hope he can surf the whole year and win the world title.
i agree with french
Your a good man Rex
Never heard surf called 7-11 foot before. hahaha. "How big is it mate?" "Orrr, about eleven foot."
I'm hoping for some Jeremy Flores style carnage
If the winds are shitty for Supertubos can they move it to a beach with better protection? Other side of Peniche ?
I'm fairly sure they can, but luckily from Sunday we should see better windows open up with plenty of swell.
It's going to large Sunday with winds hopefully being variable in the morning (EC is going with a dicier SW'ly for now).
On hold until the weekend Craig?
Yep, looks most likely.