Tahiti Pro Early Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Dispatch

If you've been following any sort of social media over the past few months, you'd be hard pressed to have missed all the Teahupoo action. From the second coming of Code Red to multiple perfect-though-heavy 8-10ft sessions.

It's been a drama-filled start to the year in Tahiti but will the WSL see their luck continue to flow on from pumping Jeffreys Bay?

Unfortunately, at this early stage the odds are stacked against the travelling tour, with a couple of large blocking highs set to disrupt the flow of Southern Ocean frontal systems up past New Zealand.

The prime swell window for Teahupoo is directly south and southeast of New Zealand. Cold fronts that project up New Zealand's east coast produce swells from the southwest, providing those west bowl sets that corner in hard on the end of the reef.

However, if the Southern Ocean storms form any further east then the swell arrives with a more southerly direction, providing less of those west sets with waves peeling from deeper on the reef - still great shape, just not as heavy.

And if the storms form even further east and create southeast swell..?

Before we answer that question, let's back it up a bit.

The Tahiti Pro starts on Thursday the 11th of August. The long range forecast shows the first half of the waiting period has a less-than-ideal pattern occurring in Tahit's swell window. That being, high pressure systems will dominate the polar latitudes at which favourable storms develop. In turn this will see a couple of low pressure systems positioned at a more northerly latitude in the lead up to the start of the waiting period. 

One of these lows is positioned in the Tasman Sea, which obviously isn't great for swell generation as New Zealand blocks the swell. However, next weekend - during days three and four of the waiting period - a small, mid-period westerly swell produced from the northern flank of a low should make landafll in Tahiti.

Yet this swell looks to be overshadowed by a localised southeast windswell. That southeast windswell will set the scene for the first half of the waiting period. Let's take a look at how it'll form.

When the event kicks off on the 11th, a strong high pressure system (1043hPa) is forecast to move slowly under Tahiti as a tropical depression to the southeast squeezes its northern flank setting up a windfield aimed back towards Tahiti.

A vast fetch of 25kt east-southeast winds will produce a dominant southeast tradeswell signal for the event window - see image below - with the tropical depression possibly deepening, generating some stronger pulses of surf from the same direction.

Surface wind forecast for next Thursday revealing source of weak west-southwest swell and localised southeast swell

Now, Teahupoo is partly sheltered from swells arriving out of the southeast but with the amount of energy currently expected, and a lack of significant southwest groundswell, this may be the only source of size.

So, what does a southeast swell look like at Teahupoo?

We had to trawl through the memory banks, yet the following 2013 wave of John John's comes to mind. Caught from very deep on the reef, it begins as a regulation point wave before slowing down and opening up as it approaches the usual takeoff.

For trivia fans: John John got a ten for the wave, and still lost the heat to Ace Buchan.


Truth be told, we're not exactly sure how a mid-range southeast swell will perform, except to say that it won't be classic Teahupoo. 

Local winds revolve around the location of the tropical depression and could be variable to gusty east-southeast. The latter would see more size out of the south-east but we'll continue to monitor this closely. Additionally there'll likely be some background south-southwest swell energy in the mix but only an inconsistent 4ft at this stage.

As a further digression, there are one or two waves on or near Tahiti that will pump under that southeast swell...

That paints the picture for the first half of the waiting period, and looking into the second half, there's still time for something more substantial to develop on the long-range charts, but the extended outlook shows higher than normal pressure persisting across the prime swell window.

We'll provide an updated forecast closer to the event next week with possible run days.

Higher than normal pressure forecast across Tahiti's prime swell window for the week Monday 8th through Monday 15th

Teahupoo 16-day Surf Forecast
Teahupoo WAMs

Comments

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 10:34am

Meh

spinafex's picture
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spinafex Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 10:52am

Extra points for Craig for going the extra mile and finding the vid of southeast at Chopes.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 10:54am

We've got Stu to thank for that and his incredible memory.

spinafex's picture
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spinafex Thursday, 4 Aug 2022 at 2:23pm

He will be known as "The Brain" from now on

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 11:06am

Looks like North Narra under SE trade-swell.

edit: looks much better in vid above.

Will JJF be there?

Will Kelly show up for a dismal f/cast?

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 11:15am

EC has a couple of interesting systems to watch. One a fair few days before kick off, and another on 12/08. A pity the ice edge isn't a little farther south.

gragagan's picture
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gragagan Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 12:20pm

Isn't John sailing his yacht down for the comp?
Meanwhile the Huntington CS has been on for the last 4 nights. Living up to its reputation for being the worst contest site ever. Pretty funny watching chloe chuck an italo tantrum after losing his heat. There's swell but it's just closeouts, with a river of a sweep going into the pier, with the wind blowing against the current.

yodai's picture
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yodai Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 1:26pm

Absolute joke that Huntington is on any wsl tour .thats how bad it is

burtousy's picture
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burtousy Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 9:19am

agreed

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 9:54am

Just tried to watch it.

Shannon, Cote and womens long boarding in 3ft onshore close-outs.

Dreadful.

Painful on the eyes and ears.

yahabo's picture
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yahabo Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 1:32pm

Filipe's ankle is suddenly feeling better...

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 2:43pm

Oh mannnnnn.

Surfalot67's picture
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Surfalot67 Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 3:27pm

Ah fuck! How disappointing. Inching ever closer to that world champ with an asterix

conrico's picture
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conrico Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 3:43pm

Can you really claim to be the "world's best surfer" if both Medina and John John were ineligible?... Asterix for sure!

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 4:01pm

I reckon you can - not worlds best surfer anyway - worlds best competition surfer. Someone is always injured

mpeachy's picture
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mpeachy Thursday, 4 Aug 2022 at 11:02am

An asterisk world title definitely beats no world title, especially if it's an aussie after we've been so bad lately.

The biggest pity is that the winner will be crowned at 3am AEST at bang-average Trestles.

peabo's picture
peabo's picture
peabo Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 11:56am

Well the title isn't for 'World's Best Surfer' is it?

If competition defines the world's best surfer, then who the world's best surfer is depends quite heavily on conditions and luck.

Solitude's picture
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Solitude Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 3:39pm

I reckon Phil is deserved. Will have to get through a rampaging Jack and Ethan though. Not a given yet.

brownie48's picture
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brownie48 Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 5:29pm

Not a deserved world champ as he doesn't have a real go

To be a real world champ to have to have a red hot crack at waves of consequence and who can forget his 0 wave score here before and his soft approach to Pipe, Sunset and the rest of Hawaii

Best small wave surfer on the planet for sure but that's it

lost's picture
lost's picture
lost Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 6:02pm

For context it’s going to be 10x better than The US Open but that’s a pretty low bar.

Distracted's picture
Distracted's picture
Distracted Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 7:21pm

It was always going to happen wasn’t it?! Shame they didn’t have the Gland date for Teahupoo and vice versa.
I had in my mind that Tahiti had better waves late autumn rather than late winter, not sure if there is any basis for that though.

evosurfer's picture
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evosurfer Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 8:35pm

I for one would welcome a SE swell with a little size of coarse as
I find watching Chopes in a pumping west swell a little boring as
every wave is a massive identical death defying mega pit. With a
SE swell might get some power surfing as well before getting a
super pit. The girls would be relieved and a couple of Brazzos.

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 10:25am

Agree.

pebbleamongsttherocks's picture
pebbleamongsttherocks's picture
pebbleamongstth... Wednesday, 3 Aug 2022 at 9:09pm

No more restless nights for Felipe, that is until the day before, the forecast throws an immaculate code red 3 curveball and his shoulder niggle drastically deteriorates

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Thursday, 4 Aug 2022 at 9:19am

Are wsl giving Molly Picklum a wild card for this event?

Bustard's picture
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Bustard Thursday, 4 Aug 2022 at 9:24am

I think they gave Sally Fitz both wild cards....and one into the mens, just in case

Zonaras's picture
Zonaras's picture
Zonaras Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 7:52am

They gave one to Vahine Fierro

Surfalot67's picture
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Surfalot67 Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 9:14am

And Hedgey!!! Seriously. He rips of course but surely Rio should have got a look in, or one of the local chargers?

Bustard's picture
Bustard's picture
Bustard Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 10:21am

Call it payback....Hog beat Andy in Brazil for Kelly to win the 2005 title. Kelly got knocked out early ( I think ) and with only Pipe to go after brazil Andy was looking the goods but Hog trumped AI and KS took home the bacon prior to pipe.

Outerknown sponno'd event,.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Thursday, 4 Aug 2022 at 2:01pm

Craig, any swell from where I marked below NZ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 4 Aug 2022 at 2:04pm

Yes, but that's a very short-lived system (at this early stage) and might bring 4ft surf.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 4 Aug 2022 at 2:11pm

Worth also noting that the models are combining a S/SW groundswell at 15s with mid-period S/SW energy at 12s on Tuesday and Wednesday the 16/17th.

6am on the Tuesday shows the two seperate swells at 1.2m, then combining them at 6am and over-forecasting the swell, showing 1.8m @ 14.7s.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Thursday, 4 Aug 2022 at 2:18pm

A lot can happen between then and now. BUT. There is something "way down there' lol

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 4 Aug 2022 at 2:20pm

Yeah still lots of time but most indicators right now aren't great.

damota's picture
damota's picture
damota Thursday, 4 Aug 2022 at 3:46pm

Ironically were all thinking jack but from under our noses ethan could go back 2 back seems to be the all the rage this year!?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 8:00am

Looking a bit more promising for the second half of the waiting period.

Both models have a decent polar storm developing, but EC a couple of days behind GFS. We'll see how it resolves.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 10:11am

WSL continues to be laughing stock of the surf world awarding Hog a wildcard into the event.

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 10:24am

Wasn’t he a personal surf coach / guide / chaperone/ reconnoitre for Dirk Ziff’s missus?

Bustard's picture
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Bustard Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 10:30am

Sponsored by OK

lost's picture
lost's picture
lost Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 6:45pm

Just ridiculous.

Paul McD's picture
Paul McD's picture
Paul McD Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 10:06pm

pfffft. Laughing stock? That's you isn't it Burleigh?
Would rather watch Hedgehog pulling into heaving 10s than watching Toledo shoulder hopping 2s.

Yendor's picture
Yendor's picture
Yendor Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 12:15pm

Hey Craig, Out of curiosity will that system producing the SE swell early in the period also produce any E swell for Australia?

NickH's picture
NickH's picture
NickH Friday, 5 Aug 2022 at 5:59pm

Is the wind system you refer to Craig, called the Maramu wind pattern - It can blow and rain for many weeks my Tahitian friend says?

steve.vockler's picture
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steve.vockler Saturday, 6 Aug 2022 at 10:17am

Last time i was there choppes was crap...... but big pass was between 4-8 foot for days. A sick wave that is best at 3-5 foot as it hugs the reef...... next stage of the trip was rangioroa.....
Ran into a family there called the florences. jon jon was a ripping grom and his mum paddling around in a gstring.... memoable trip.

mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207 Sunday, 7 Aug 2022 at 12:58pm

Just listening to latest Aint that Swell podcast. The boys interview Callum Robsun and he is talking about "arriving early" to train with Surfing Australia team. Interested to hear he has never been there before (???) and generally describing Tahiti like someone who has never been anywhere overseas before also the fact none of the women have arrived there yet. Doesnt seem like learning the ropes at what is probably the hardest wave on tour has much or any merit to a lot of pro surfers . Another factor the 5 person final at Trestles just makes it easy to skip events where you wont do well.
Will be interesting to hear the bullshit excuses they come up with for not being able surf Chopes, lucky the forecast is average I guess .
Worth a listen

bigwagon's picture
bigwagon's picture
bigwagon Sunday, 7 Aug 2022 at 1:03pm

Back end of the waiting period starting to look solid

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Sunday, 7 Aug 2022 at 6:43pm

Looks like a perfect low on GFS hey, not so solid on EC.
Fingers crossed it comes off, but Gossip For Surfers does seem to love a long range onion.

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Sunday, 7 Aug 2022 at 4:33pm

Surely a wildcard for Matahi or Kauli? Is there still a local trials?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 7 Aug 2022 at 6:38pm

John Florence is in the draw.

Ht 8 with Kelly Slater and Miggy Pupo.

Swany's picture
Swany's picture
Swany Sunday, 7 Aug 2022 at 11:28pm

Any update on the long ranger? Starting to look chunk, no?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 11:14am

Update:

The first half of the waiting period is still looking very small and with fading levels of mid-period SE swell along with clean conditions. There doesn't look to be enough size to run until early next week when some small S/SW energy arrives.

This looks to come in around the 4ft range Monday (possibly a little bigger Tuesday) and with clean conditions.

There is some better S/SW groundswell energy lining up for the second half of the waiting period to at least 6-8ft but a strengthening high pressure ridge squeezing against a tropical depression may bring poor, strong winds if not next Wednesday, the following Thursday/Friday. Hopefully we see a window of lighter winds with the first pulse of swell but we'll have a more comprehensive update tomorrow.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 11:46am

Drollet vs Vaast trials final on now:

lost's picture
lost's picture
lost Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 11:54am

It all sounds so sexier in the French

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 11:55am

Getting sea sick just watching..

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 12:08pm

Both these guys deserve the spot.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 12:14pm

Imagine what these 2 would be doing if the trials final was in glassy 8ft+

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 1:30pm

What…. Instead of Hog? A 43 year old has been.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 2:19pm

Yeah these undeserved, hand-picked wildcards are wearing thin. There's probably at least 20 local surfers would deserve that spot and do more with it than Hog.........and this is by no means a crack at him.

Bustard's picture
Bustard's picture
Bustard Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 2:58pm

I was in newy watching the board riders comp when NN won and man Hog went hard. Not a fan of the hand picked wildcards but secretly hope he rattles a cage or 2

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 3:45pm

Inter club board riders comp Vs CT event are very different.

Im sure he can rattle a cage or 2 but think about poor Liam O'brien who qualified this year but injured himself the morning of the pipe event (1st event of the year) and didn't get to surf one event.
WSL didn't give him 1 wildcard all year after his broken leg healed. Yet they will give a 43 year old has been a slot.

Bustard's picture
Bustard's picture
Bustard Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 5:01pm

Don’t disagree with the logic mate, 100 % Liam should get a shot, but in that inter club comp I’ve watched Mikey, Owen, Tyler, Ryan, Jacko, Morgs, Parko, Laura, Sally, molly, to name a few…. Might not be CT level but … pretty tidy

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Monday, 8 Aug 2022 at 3:51pm

It makes zero sense to me.

Why?

And it seems doubly ridiculous after the last Slater Lost Tapes in Tahiti where he swore black and blue how much Tahiti meant to him.

Why not give it to a local kid then?

There are so many who would charge the biggest pits out there and do wonder for Tahitian surfing.

This seems like the worst kind of cheap, commercial nepotism.

groundswell's picture
groundswell's picture
groundswell Tuesday, 9 Aug 2022 at 12:52am

I agree freeride, one of Dylan Longbottoms friends, cant remember his name Matahi Drollet or something looks up to the task paddling in on 12-15 footers and grew up there. Seems like one of the best surfers to come out of Tahiti.
Meanwhile i'd be trying to find this wave:

I've looked all over the pacific with a few clues but cant find it in French Polynesia so Anthony Walsh was super stealth about it.

LeroytheMasochist's picture
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LeroytheMasochist Monday, 15 Aug 2022 at 5:49am

Leroy thinks the Hog most worthy recipient. Hedgehog to go pigdog on his 6'3 sick log. Just on his first bog.

Think about it. Kelly's last rodeo. #get Dorian in hogs corner for last hurrah.

You guys call yourselves Australians. Hedgehog has totally turned his life around. Listen to the ain't that swell episode. He tells great story's, pretty funny and is compelling because he is entirely based in reality and not sugar coating anything.

In a recent interview he talks about how in order just to trial in the events 15 odd years ago he had to borrow 2500 bucks. He spent all the money on a quiver of Tokoro surfboards won the trail then finaled knocking out the likes of Andy irons along the way. He doesn't make it sound like he is embattled either, just trying to feel like he belongs in the here and now.

Leroy never met the Hog, but wants this guy to win kinda bad.

How much of a favour do you think the WSL are doing by giving a young Tahitian kid a wild card really? When you really think about it,?

Some of you complain about corporate fuckery but do you acknowledge outerknown is trying to do something for the little man in the supply chain? No. But would you come on here and bag out an outerknown branding vid by saying the shits way to expensive? Yes, I think you would. I'm sure I've actually read it.

The world is fucked. When you try to make a shirt in a fair way it cost $100. When you try and electrify the world you realise you don't have nearly enough shit. Well that's how it it starts.

What are you cunts doin about it apart from bagging out the WSL. This thread over.

Go hog.

Surfalot67's picture
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Surfalot67 Monday, 15 Aug 2022 at 6:36am

You lost me with the third person wank.