Tahiti Pro Early Forecast
If you've been following any sort of social media over the past few months, you'd be hard pressed to have missed all the Teahupoo action. From the second coming of Code Red to multiple perfect-though-heavy 8-10ft sessions.
It's been a drama-filled start to the year in Tahiti but will the WSL see their luck continue to flow on from pumping Jeffreys Bay?
Unfortunately, at this early stage the odds are stacked against the travelling tour, with a couple of large blocking highs set to disrupt the flow of Southern Ocean frontal systems up past New Zealand.
The prime swell window for Teahupoo is directly south and southeast of New Zealand. Cold fronts that project up New Zealand's east coast produce swells from the southwest, providing those west bowl sets that corner in hard on the end of the reef.
However, if the Southern Ocean storms form any further east then the swell arrives with a more southerly direction, providing less of those west sets with waves peeling from deeper on the reef - still great shape, just not as heavy.
And if the storms form even further east and create southeast swell..?
Before we answer that question, let's back it up a bit.
The Tahiti Pro starts on Thursday the 11th of August. The long range forecast shows the first half of the waiting period has a less-than-ideal pattern occurring in Tahit's swell window. That being, high pressure systems will dominate the polar latitudes at which favourable storms develop. In turn this will see a couple of low pressure systems positioned at a more northerly latitude in the lead up to the start of the waiting period.
One of these lows is positioned in the Tasman Sea, which obviously isn't great for swell generation as New Zealand blocks the swell. However, next weekend - during days three and four of the waiting period - a small, mid-period westerly swell produced from the northern flank of a low should make landafll in Tahiti.
Yet this swell looks to be overshadowed by a localised southeast windswell. That southeast windswell will set the scene for the first half of the waiting period. Let's take a look at how it'll form.
When the event kicks off on the 11th, a strong high pressure system (1043hPa) is forecast to move slowly under Tahiti as a tropical depression to the southeast squeezes its northern flank setting up a windfield aimed back towards Tahiti.
A vast fetch of 25kt east-southeast winds will produce a dominant southeast tradeswell signal for the event window - see image below - with the tropical depression possibly deepening, generating some stronger pulses of surf from the same direction.
Surface wind forecast for next Thursday revealing source of weak west-southwest swell and localised southeast swell
Now, Teahupoo is partly sheltered from swells arriving out of the southeast but with the amount of energy currently expected, and a lack of significant southwest groundswell, this may be the only source of size.
So, what does a southeast swell look like at Teahupoo?
We had to trawl through the memory banks, yet the following 2013 wave of John John's comes to mind. Caught from very deep on the reef, it begins as a regulation point wave before slowing down and opening up as it approaches the usual takeoff.
For trivia fans: John John got a ten for the wave, and still lost the heat to Ace Buchan.
Truth be told, we're not exactly sure how a mid-range southeast swell will perform, except to say that it won't be classic Teahupoo.
Local winds revolve around the location of the tropical depression and could be variable to gusty east-southeast. The latter would see more size out of the south-east but we'll continue to monitor this closely. Additionally there'll likely be some background south-southwest swell energy in the mix but only an inconsistent 4ft at this stage.
As a further digression, there are one or two waves on or near Tahiti that will pump under that southeast swell...
That paints the picture for the first half of the waiting period, and looking into the second half, there's still time for something more substantial to develop on the long-range charts, but the extended outlook shows higher than normal pressure persisting across the prime swell window.
We'll provide an updated forecast closer to the event next week with possible run days.
Higher than normal pressure forecast across Tahiti's prime swell window for the week Monday 8th through Monday 15th
Comments
Meh
Extra points for Craig for going the extra mile and finding the vid of southeast at Chopes.
We've got Stu to thank for that and his incredible memory.
He will be known as "The Brain" from now on
Looks like North Narra under SE trade-swell.
edit: looks much better in vid above.
Will JJF be there?
Will Kelly show up for a dismal f/cast?
EC has a couple of interesting systems to watch. One a fair few days before kick off, and another on 12/08. A pity the ice edge isn't a little farther south.
Isn't John sailing his yacht down for the comp?
Meanwhile the Huntington CS has been on for the last 4 nights. Living up to its reputation for being the worst contest site ever. Pretty funny watching chloe chuck an italo tantrum after losing his heat. There's swell but it's just closeouts, with a river of a sweep going into the pier, with the wind blowing against the current.
Absolute joke that Huntington is on any wsl tour .thats how bad it is
agreed
Just tried to watch it.
Shannon, Cote and womens long boarding in 3ft onshore close-outs.
Dreadful.
Painful on the eyes and ears.
Filipe's ankle is suddenly feeling better...
Oh mannnnnn.
Ah fuck! How disappointing. Inching ever closer to that world champ with an asterix
Can you really claim to be the "world's best surfer" if both Medina and John John were ineligible?... Asterix for sure!
I reckon you can - not worlds best surfer anyway - worlds best competition surfer. Someone is always injured
An asterisk world title definitely beats no world title, especially if it's an aussie after we've been so bad lately.
The biggest pity is that the winner will be crowned at 3am AEST at bang-average Trestles.
Well the title isn't for 'World's Best Surfer' is it?
If competition defines the world's best surfer, then who the world's best surfer is depends quite heavily on conditions and luck.
I reckon Phil is deserved. Will have to get through a rampaging Jack and Ethan though. Not a given yet.
Not a deserved world champ as he doesn't have a real go
To be a real world champ to have to have a red hot crack at waves of consequence and who can forget his 0 wave score here before and his soft approach to Pipe, Sunset and the rest of Hawaii
Best small wave surfer on the planet for sure but that's it
For context it’s going to be 10x better than The US Open but that’s a pretty low bar.
It was always going to happen wasn’t it?! Shame they didn’t have the Gland date for Teahupoo and vice versa.
I had in my mind that Tahiti had better waves late autumn rather than late winter, not sure if there is any basis for that though.
I for one would welcome a SE swell with a little size of coarse as
I find watching Chopes in a pumping west swell a little boring as
every wave is a massive identical death defying mega pit. With a
SE swell might get some power surfing as well before getting a
super pit. The girls would be relieved and a couple of Brazzos.
Agree.
No more restless nights for Felipe, that is until the day before, the forecast throws an immaculate code red 3 curveball and his shoulder niggle drastically deteriorates
Are wsl giving Molly Picklum a wild card for this event?
I think they gave Sally Fitz both wild cards....and one into the mens, just in case
They gave one to Vahine Fierro
And Hedgey!!! Seriously. He rips of course but surely Rio should have got a look in, or one of the local chargers?
Call it payback....Hog beat Andy in Brazil for Kelly to win the 2005 title. Kelly got knocked out early ( I think ) and with only Pipe to go after brazil Andy was looking the goods but Hog trumped AI and KS took home the bacon prior to pipe.
Outerknown sponno'd event,.
Craig, any swell from where I marked below NZ?
Yes, but that's a very short-lived system (at this early stage) and might bring 4ft surf.
Worth also noting that the models are combining a S/SW groundswell at 15s with mid-period S/SW energy at 12s on Tuesday and Wednesday the 16/17th.
6am on the Tuesday shows the two seperate swells at 1.2m, then combining them at 6am and over-forecasting the swell, showing 1.8m @ 14.7s.
A lot can happen between then and now. BUT. There is something "way down there' lol
Yeah still lots of time but most indicators right now aren't great.
Ironically were all thinking jack but from under our noses ethan could go back 2 back seems to be the all the rage this year!?
Looking a bit more promising for the second half of the waiting period.
Both models have a decent polar storm developing, but EC a couple of days behind GFS. We'll see how it resolves.
WSL continues to be laughing stock of the surf world awarding Hog a wildcard into the event.
Wasn’t he a personal surf coach / guide / chaperone/ reconnoitre for Dirk Ziff’s missus?
Sponsored by OK
Just ridiculous.
pfffft. Laughing stock? That's you isn't it Burleigh?
Would rather watch Hedgehog pulling into heaving 10s than watching Toledo shoulder hopping 2s.
Hey Craig, Out of curiosity will that system producing the SE swell early in the period also produce any E swell for Australia?
Is the wind system you refer to Craig, called the Maramu wind pattern - It can blow and rain for many weeks my Tahitian friend says?
Last time i was there choppes was crap...... but big pass was between 4-8 foot for days. A sick wave that is best at 3-5 foot as it hugs the reef...... next stage of the trip was rangioroa.....
Ran into a family there called the florences. jon jon was a ripping grom and his mum paddling around in a gstring.... memoable trip.
Just listening to latest Aint that Swell podcast. The boys interview Callum Robsun and he is talking about "arriving early" to train with Surfing Australia team. Interested to hear he has never been there before (???) and generally describing Tahiti like someone who has never been anywhere overseas before also the fact none of the women have arrived there yet. Doesnt seem like learning the ropes at what is probably the hardest wave on tour has much or any merit to a lot of pro surfers . Another factor the 5 person final at Trestles just makes it easy to skip events where you wont do well.
Will be interesting to hear the bullshit excuses they come up with for not being able surf Chopes, lucky the forecast is average I guess .
Worth a listen
Back end of the waiting period starting to look solid
Looks like a perfect low on GFS hey, not so solid on EC.
Fingers crossed it comes off, but Gossip For Surfers does seem to love a long range onion.
Surely a wildcard for Matahi or Kauli? Is there still a local trials?
John Florence is in the draw.
Ht 8 with Kelly Slater and Miggy Pupo.
Any update on the long ranger? Starting to look chunk, no?
Update:
The first half of the waiting period is still looking very small and with fading levels of mid-period SE swell along with clean conditions. There doesn't look to be enough size to run until early next week when some small S/SW energy arrives.
This looks to come in around the 4ft range Monday (possibly a little bigger Tuesday) and with clean conditions.
There is some better S/SW groundswell energy lining up for the second half of the waiting period to at least 6-8ft but a strengthening high pressure ridge squeezing against a tropical depression may bring poor, strong winds if not next Wednesday, the following Thursday/Friday. Hopefully we see a window of lighter winds with the first pulse of swell but we'll have a more comprehensive update tomorrow.
Drollet vs Vaast trials final on now:
It all sounds so sexier in the French
Getting sea sick just watching..
Both these guys deserve the spot.
Imagine what these 2 would be doing if the trials final was in glassy 8ft+
What…. Instead of Hog? A 43 year old has been.
Yeah these undeserved, hand-picked wildcards are wearing thin. There's probably at least 20 local surfers would deserve that spot and do more with it than Hog.........and this is by no means a crack at him.
I was in newy watching the board riders comp when NN won and man Hog went hard. Not a fan of the hand picked wildcards but secretly hope he rattles a cage or 2
Inter club board riders comp Vs CT event are very different.
Im sure he can rattle a cage or 2 but think about poor Liam O'brien who qualified this year but injured himself the morning of the pipe event (1st event of the year) and didn't get to surf one event.
WSL didn't give him 1 wildcard all year after his broken leg healed. Yet they will give a 43 year old has been a slot.
Don’t disagree with the logic mate, 100 % Liam should get a shot, but in that inter club comp I’ve watched Mikey, Owen, Tyler, Ryan, Jacko, Morgs, Parko, Laura, Sally, molly, to name a few…. Might not be CT level but … pretty tidy
It makes zero sense to me.
Why?
And it seems doubly ridiculous after the last Slater Lost Tapes in Tahiti where he swore black and blue how much Tahiti meant to him.
Why not give it to a local kid then?
There are so many who would charge the biggest pits out there and do wonder for Tahitian surfing.
This seems like the worst kind of cheap, commercial nepotism.
I agree freeride, one of Dylan Longbottoms friends, cant remember his name Matahi Drollet or something looks up to the task paddling in on 12-15 footers and grew up there. Seems like one of the best surfers to come out of Tahiti.
Meanwhile i'd be trying to find this wave:
I've looked all over the pacific with a few clues but cant find it in French Polynesia so Anthony Walsh was super stealth about it.
Leroy thinks the Hog most worthy recipient. Hedgehog to go pigdog on his 6'3 sick log. Just on his first bog.
Think about it. Kelly's last rodeo. #get Dorian in hogs corner for last hurrah.
You guys call yourselves Australians. Hedgehog has totally turned his life around. Listen to the ain't that swell episode. He tells great story's, pretty funny and is compelling because he is entirely based in reality and not sugar coating anything.
In a recent interview he talks about how in order just to trial in the events 15 odd years ago he had to borrow 2500 bucks. He spent all the money on a quiver of Tokoro surfboards won the trail then finaled knocking out the likes of Andy irons along the way. He doesn't make it sound like he is embattled either, just trying to feel like he belongs in the here and now.
Leroy never met the Hog, but wants this guy to win kinda bad.
How much of a favour do you think the WSL are doing by giving a young Tahitian kid a wild card really? When you really think about it,?
Some of you complain about corporate fuckery but do you acknowledge outerknown is trying to do something for the little man in the supply chain? No. But would you come on here and bag out an outerknown branding vid by saying the shits way to expensive? Yes, I think you would. I'm sure I've actually read it.
The world is fucked. When you try to make a shirt in a fair way it cost $100. When you try and electrify the world you realise you don't have nearly enough shit. Well that's how it it starts.
What are you cunts doin about it apart from bagging out the WSL. This thread over.
Go hog.
You lost me with the third person wank.
Gary G 3rd person was funny...these 2 johnny come lately 3rd persons not so....but in saying that, Has anyone actually seen Leroy and Gary G in the same room at the same time....
''How much of a favour do you think the WSL are doing by giving a young Tahitian kid a wild card really? When you really think about it,?''
..............Could literally kickstart a career. Give a young fella without the means or contacts a chance to experience the world such as Michel Bourez did.........or at the very least give them the chance to shine in front of sponsors so the young fella can graft a modest living by surfing Teahupo'o and living a fulfilling island life - just like many Hawaiians get to by surfing Pipe.
Also, it's their wave, why not? Should be mandatory.
"How much of a favour do you think the WSL are doing by giving a young Tahitian kid a wild card really? When you really think about it?"
FWIW, I don't think I had really heard of Moana Jones Wong before 2022. However, not only did she win the wild card to this year's Pipe Masters, she took out Carissa Moore in the Final.
And now her profile has elevated to the point where she's considered one of the best female tube riders around.
Would she be a household name (at least in the surf community) without a local wild card at Pipe? Probably not.
Oh no no. Leroy says when it's over.
Yep Leroy concedes that by not giving the wild card to the locals you
1. perhaps miss the opportunity for a Moana Wong story. (A good story on multifaceted levels)
2. Perhaps piss off the locals and make your contest unviable.
I get the feeling this thing is all a bit more thought out than that though.
O.k - So lets say you give a Tahitian kid a wild card. Well first thing you do is isolate him/her from peer group as I imagine its pretty competitive and there is probably not much in it. Second thing you do is set them up with the expectation that there is a potential life as a pro surfer in the wings. You go down that route and sure you give em opportunity but you also isolate a family orientated kid removing him/her from paradise and possibly the best wave in the world- send them off to freeze balls/vag on the challenger series. Then perhaps their surfing is better suited to perfect waves and it doesn't work in the big wide relatively dog shit imperfect world. So back home at the end feeling a bit disconnected, a bit of a failure, perhaps a has been to top it all off. Its the side of pro surfing you don't hear much about..
If you want a Tahitian young gun to the top you got to get em early and send em away like they did with a few Indo guys. Good guidance, good junior contest access etc. It depends on the individual youngster to a large extent. Is that suited to them? I'm not even sure the Tahitians have access to a challenger series at home do they?
Slater to throw down some spono dollars for Tahitian rippers maybe and definitely a good send off for Bourez. Leroy still remembers I think the 2014 contest at Margaret river which Bourez won. His name was Michael back then, a mans name and I'm seriously not kidding- throwing man turns. You can watch some of the highlights on screen but it doesn't do it justice. Power surfing is best witnessed live. Honestly it was emotional, he was that dominant in the water that when he came out after the final he was sort of glowing radioactively. ( I do believe it was extreme levels of mana mixed with stoke). He is one of the few surfers Leroy follows on facebook and I would love him to win the contest perhaps more than Hog even.
You pricks surely got to admit the Hog is a good pick by now. Look at the big picture. Surfing is a story about addiction. You go to Tahiti. Even the salt air tastes like Andy Irons. (perfect style mixed confusingly with froth, pills and genitalia).
Hog is through the eye of the looking glass now. He's paying $5 and I think he'll take out the opening round going switch on his first wave -perhaps clinching the AI award simultaneously.
Its a big ask but Leroy believes. Anyway all Hog needs to win is to feel at one with his right to be there and to embrace the loss as nothing more nothing less if it eventuates.
Don't lose though Hog. If your reading this I've got $2500 buck on ya at 5-1. Go switch, go HOG.